Amazon Performance Another Warning Sign For Retailers

AMZN - Amazon Performance Another Warning Sign For Retailers

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You couldn’t hide the ugly in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) if you wanted to. During October’s hailstorm, AMZN stock dropped 21% of market value. This month has provided some respite, but even with recent bullishness, shares are still down 2.6% for November. All told, the e-commerce giant is down 22% since the beginning of September.

Usually, Amazon stock is the gold standard for a fundamentally sound organization with tremendous growth potential. However, its latest third-quarter 2018 earnings report finally forced the persistently bullish to look at the other perspective.

While AMZN delivered a strong beat against the earnings print, its revenue growth declined ahead of the holiday season. The sales haul also missed consensus targets. More critically, management offered up what analysts perceived as disappointing guidance for Q4.

You could look at Q3 in a variety of ways as the misses weren’t terrible. However, as I previously argued, you want to build momentum into the holidays, not bleed it. This is especially critical as traditional retailers are fighting tooth-and-nail against Amazon.

A prime example is the Toys R Us bankruptcy. With a once-vaunted competitor out of the picture, companies like Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT) stand to benefit greatly. After all, these big-box retailers provide immediate demand fulfillment for other consumer goods, essentially producing “bonus” revenue.

As it stands, deciphering AMZN stock is tricky business. Recently, our own Bret Kenwell stated that Amazon stock could be a buy, but that “you’re better off waiting.” It’s not a bearish note, but it’s not exactly confidence-inspiring, either.

So how should investors approach the now-embattled AMZN?

Fundamental Shift in American Consumerism Benefits AMZN

If you’re looking strictly at short-term trading, the idea of jumping on AMZN stock now is a haphazard one. On the one hand, I’m encouraged that shares are up nearly 6% against the Nov. 20 close. But on the other hand, that’s a small lift against an overall hemorrhaging.

But if you’re patient and willing to ride out some nearer-term choppiness, Amazon stock looks awfully intriguing. The latest read from Cyber Monday sales further bolsters the bullish case.

In total, Cyber Monday hit a record-smashing $7.9 billion in revenue, making it the single-largest shopping day in the U.S. To put this into perspective, Thanksgiving day specials rang up $3.7 billion, while Black Friday generated $6.2 billion.

Of course, with retailers pushing door-buster deals into Thanksgiving, this move cannibalizes Black Friday. Still, even if we combine the two, Cyber Monday took home 80% of this tally. This more than confirms that American consumerism has gone digital, which largely benefits Amazon stock.

If lingering doubts existed, management extinguished them all, noting that Monday’s sales represented the biggest single-day event in corporate history. Significantly, Amazon produced a comprehensive beatdown against its competitors, suggesting their weak Q4 guidance was more gamesmanship than legitimate concern.

From popular electronics to books to ancestry DNA kits, AMZN saw and heard the cash registers ringing. Notably, Amazon sold 18 million toys on Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined, negatively impacting Walmart’s and Target’s “vulturism.”

The online retailer’s single best-selling product was the Echo Dot smart speaker. This is huge for Amazon stock as it proves its leading market-share position is no fluke. Plus, it sticks the knife into Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

Finally, hungry Americans clamored into the acquired Whole Foods Market, driving up turkey sales to record highs. We do remember that Amazon is a grocer too, right?

Abundant Riches Could Lift AMZN Stock, But Watch Broader Sentiment

Here’s the crazy part, I haven’t even covered Amazon’s crown jewel: its AWS cloud-services platform. This segment consistently delivers massive double-digit revenue growth. More importantly, AWS shows no sign of slowing down.

Another component that benefits AMZN stock long-term is this cloud unit’s margins. Operating profit margins are typically north of 20%, which makes sense. Unlike retail, you’re not holding vast inventory and shipping products everywhere. Therefore, with the company’s combined businesses, you have both growth and profitability engines.

Ultimately, I like the opportunity in Amazon stock. But as a practicality, I caution against going too hot into current prices. Yes, they’re deflated from their 52-week high, but as my InvestorPlace colleague Dana Blankenhorn stated, we’re in a bear market. Stuff happens in a bear market.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/12/amazon-performance-another-warning-sign-for-retailers/.

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