It was another choppy session as many traders may be better off focusing on a new hobby or playing some golf until we get some more encouraging follow-through. This Wednesday would have typically been an exception, given that there was an FOMC statement in the afternoon. Even that couldn’t get the tape to move. Despite the overall choppiness in the market, there were plenty of individual movers though. Let’s look at a few top stock trades to watch on Thursday.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #1: Target
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As you’ll see in a moment, Target (NYSE:TGT) was one of the few positive standouts when it comes to retail earnings. Shares jumped more than 9% on the day and held most of their post-earnings gains as investors have to be cheering the price action.
So what now?
I need to see TGT stock stay above $76.31. If it breaks below, that means it will have lost both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as its 61.8% retracement for the one-year range. It will have also fallen back below prior downtrend resistance.
If TGT can continue higher, look to see if it can fill the gap up to $81-ish. Shares are not yet overbought and the MACD has swung in bulls’ favor.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #2: Urban Outfitters
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This isn’t one for me. There are other names in retail — TGT and TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) are two examples — that are doing well. I’d rather bet with the wind than against it, and URBN sure has a lot of wind in its face.
URBN is a no-touch for me on the long side until it can breakout of this channel and put in a bottom.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #3: Advance Auto Parts
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Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) is rising on Wednesday after reporting earnings. Its reaction isn’t unlike its peer AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), which we covered the other day.
Shares did a great job breaking out of that steep downward channel, now up seven sessions in a row. On Wednesday though, resistance was just too much.
$170 is a significant level, while the 38.2% retracement is at $169.06. AAP is even having trouble getting above its 50-day moving average. That’s okay though, as shares are holding the 200-day moving average, at least for now.
I would love to see a mover $170 now, which could ignite a move back up to the $180+ area on the chart. Below today’s low and AAP could fill the gap back down to $162.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #4: Canopy Growth
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In this choppy market, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock pullback now, but if prior resistance acts as support — say near $44 — then this may be a buy for another push higher. (Time to load up?)
Of course, over Wednesday’s high gets us to $48, which was prior resistance earlier this year. Above that, and CGC can test this year’s high over $52. A break back below resistance likely gets CGC down to the 200-day.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #5: Toll Brothers
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Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is down about 4% after the company reported earnings. This one could be in trouble if sellers start to take control.
TOL has gone from one channel to the next, and while shares are currently in an uptrend, support is being tested. If it gives way — as the 10-week moving average has now — TOL could be heading lower. The first notable level below channel support is $35, which is the confluence of the 50-week and 200-week moving averages. It’s where we’ll also find the 200-day moving average. You may also notice that the MACD is starting to roll over (blue circle).
That said, all hope is not lost. For shares to maintain their upward trajectory, Toll Brothers need to see support hold. If it does, a retest of $40 resistance is on the table.
Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Kenwell held no positions in any aforementioned securities.
