One of my favorite things about investing is when you find a beaten-down stock in an industry with tried-and-proven success and snap up shares at a discount. Sure, there’s short-term pain, but the long-term gains are incredibly enticing. That’s where we are with Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) stock.

Royal Caribbean is down more than 50% so far this year, and even took another downturn in the last week as a new wave of pessimism engulfed the cruise industry.

That’s perfectly fine. Let the haters hate RCL stock and the rest of the cruise industry right now. Because I’m convinced that buying Royal Caribbean today, means at least a 100% return in the next couple of years.

That’s right. RCL stock should double. And where else can you put money with the reasonable expectation of doubling in the next two years or so?

RCL Stock at a Glance

While Royal Caribbean shares are less than $60 today, it wasn’t so long ago that a single share of RCL cost more than twice of that. In mid-January, Royal Caribbean was trading at $135.

That was before the novel coronavirus hit, of course. While the economy as a whole took one on the chin thanks to Covid-19, the cruise industry took a disproportionate blow. Unlike airline stocks that were eligible for CARES Act funding from the federal government, cruise lines were largely left to fend for themselves.

Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH) is off 67% so far this year, and Carnival (NYSE:CCL) took a similar fall, dropping 62% year to date.

First-quarter earnings were as bad as you could expect, with revenues of $2 billion down, down from $2.4 billion in the same quarter a year ago. The company reported an adjusted net loss of $310.4 million, or -$1.48 per share, versus profits of $275.8 million and $1.31 per share a year ago.

Royal Caribbean disclosed that it is burning between $250 million and $275 million per month to maintain ship operating expenses, administration, debt service and required capital expenses. That’s a hefty sum when there’s little to no income coming in.

The company announced that as of April 30 it had $2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand.

A Recent Move Lower

If you’re a RCL bear, then the announcement that Norwegian extended its suspension of cruise operations until at least Sept. 30 is another reason to avoid cruise lines.

Norwegian said it is working with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to “take all necessary precautions to ensure the health, safety, and security of guests, crew, and the communities visited.”

Health officials in Australia, Spain and Canada extended restrictions against cruise operators in the last month, and Wall Street is expecting the CDC to do the same. Currently, CDC’s no-sail order extends until July 24.

RCL had been steadily moving higher since bottoming out in mid-March, but Norwegian’s announcement shaved 10% from RCL shares this week.

There’s Reason for Optimism

With all these headwinds, it’s no wonder that RCL stock is depressed. But take a step back and you see a delicious opportunity.

First, look at the history of cruise lines. According to the Cruise Lines International Association, the number of passengers taking global cruises increased from 17.8 million in 2009 to a projected 30 million in 2019.

Then look at the behavior of Americans as the coronavirus unfolded. States bucked CDC guidance and reopened because they were under tremendous pressure from constituents who were tired of stay-at-home orders and social distancing.

There were rallies in statehouses across the country with armed people demanding the right to a haircut, of all things.

Rightly or wrongly, people will push boundaries and will go to all lengths to get a sense of normalcy back in their lives. And that means going on vacation as soon as they are able.

Cruise lines are hurt now, but it won’t take long for ships to begin filling up again. This week, investment banker J.P. Morgan predicted “a reasonable, albeit slow, recovery in operations” for cruise line stocks. It said that shares would “remain choppy and range-bound until investors receive more clarity” on when the CDC will permit operations to resume.

The Bottom Line on RCL Stock

Many investors right now are pouring through the latest information about drug companies, trying to figure out which company is most likely to find a coronavirus vaccine. Whether you have your money on Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) or iBio (NYSEMKT:IBIO), such investments are speculative at best.

A better way to get profits during the coronavirus is to find an industry with a proven track record and business model that’s been beaten down by recent events.

Whether it takes one year or two, the cruise line industry is too popular and too unique not to bounce back from Covid-19. For me, that’s a much more certain bet than trying to guess which drug company will win the vaccine sweepstakes.

RCL stock is going to be choppy for a few more months. But there’s still time to jump in now, ride the rough seas and come out of this with double your money.

That makes Royal Caribbean a buy for me right now.

Patrick Sanders is a freelance writer and editor in Maryland, and from 2015 to 2019 was head of the investment advice section at U.S. News & World Report. Follow him on Twitter at @1patricksanders. As of this writing, he is long RCL stock.