The major stock market indexes are hitting new highs almost every week. Even the recent Reddit r/WallStreetBets excitement wasn’t enough to stop the euphoria. Yet as markets advanced to fresh records, one group of companies has largely gotten left behind: The Trump stocks.
There’s a new leader at the White House, and with it, investors have made some major shifts. Green energy, tech and a few other such sectors are the stocks to buy. Meanwhile, some old Trump favorites, such as defense stocks and mining names have hit the skids.
With the market being as expensive as it is right now, it’s a great time to go looking through discarded Trump stocks for some bargains. Here are seven to put on your radar:
- Lockheed-Martin (NYSE:LMT)
- General Dynamics (NYSE:GD)
- Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV)
- Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD)
- ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM)
- Boeing (NYSE:BA)
- GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)
Trump Stocks to Buy: Lockheed-Martin (LMT)
The defense contractors like Lockheed-Martin have dipped sharply with the transition to the Biden Administration. It’s not surprising at first glance that investors would dump this category. LMT stock is down 4.1% since the election.
Former President Trump was clearly favorable for the sector. He pushed through a big military modernization program that generated many huge new contracts for leading defense companies.
The Trump Administration also looked out for defense in other ways, such as controversially getting aid to the industry into the seemingly unrelated Cares Act Covid-19 relief bill. So you can see why defense stocks are trading down.
However, President Biden is hardly a dove on military action. Look at his past voting record, such as on the Iraq War. Or the policy stances of some of his leading advisors, such as seemingly pushing for a more interventionist position in Venezuela.
Make no mistake, the U.S. is still the world’s policeman, and military spending should remain robust over the next four years. That puts a company like Lockheed-Martin in great position. It is one of the world’s largest and most profitable defense contractors.
And now, with the recent sell-off, LMT stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13x. Additionally it offers a 3.1% dividend yield. That’s a great deal in this market.
General Dynamics (GD)
Defense is a big sector, thus there’s room for more than one name here: General Dynamics.
General Dynamics is one of the country’s five-largest defense contractors in the country. It sells a variety of defense systems including submarines, combat vehicles, munitions, and more. On the commercial side of things, it also sells Gulfstream business jets.
GD stock is down more than 10% over the past year, over both defense concerns and a potential slowdown in Gulfstream private jet sales with the pandemic. GD stock is trading at 14x trailing and 12x forward earnings. That’s right, even though the stock has sold off, the overall business is still growing.
Additionally, General Dynamics is a Dividend Aristocrat, as it has increased its dividend for 29 straight years. So, in addition to getting a discounted entry point, shareholders get a current 2.8% starting dividend yield that the company increases like clockwork.
Another sector that has lost some steam lately is the gold mining names. Gold pushed up to new all-time highs last year, and the gold miners like Franco-Nevada had a sparkling run as well. However, things have moved in reverse as of late.
Some of that is probably due to other factors. For one, the rise of Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies has dulled gold’s appeal to a degree. More broadly, however, having Trump out of the way may reduce risk premiums a bit. Gold is fundamentally a form of insurance, and perhaps people are buying less insurance with the change in government. On top of that, gold mining can be a destructive industry to the environment, so President Biden may slow mining projects within the U.S.
Franco-Nevada is one gold and commodities play that has been hard-hit by these impacts. It is the world’s leading commodities royalty company. It gives capital to mining companies, and in return earns a portion of the revenues in future years. Franco-Nevada has large holdings in gold, silver, copper and oil royalty streams.
FNV stock has been a massive winner over the past decade; it’s up from $30 to $120 over that span. That’s even with a soft market for commodities such as oil. However, as gold has sold off, so has Franco-Nevada — it was above $160 last summer. Now, with gold sliding, FNV stock has dropped 25%, offering an attractive entry point.
Barrick Gold (GOLD)
Barrick Gold is another gold miner that has struggled mightily with the change in power. Barrick, which trades under the unambiguous GOLD stock ticker, has dropped from $31 in August to just $22 now. That despite its earnings nearly tripling over the past year. And it trades at just 13x trailing earnings.
Sure, people may be worried about lower earnings going forward. But remember that gold was at $1,500 per ounce at the start of 2020 and $1,700 around the start of the pandemic. So while the current $1,845 quotation is certainly a decline from the $2,000+ it hit last summer, the price of gold is still up in the big picture.
Gold miners typically are not tend to not be great long-term investments. So these aren’t the sorts of shares you want to buy and hold forever in most cases. As an overreaction to Trump losing, however, GOLD stock will shine from this bargain bin price point.
On a similar note, some investors have sold their energy positions like Exxon Mobil due to the Biden win.
XOM stock fell to a two-year low with the broader market in March 2020, only to have a short burst in June before falling back to those lows in ahead of the election.
In a way, that makes sense. The Biden Administration isn’t totally against oil; Biden doesn’t want to ban fracking, for example.
However, Biden has taken concrete steps — such as blocking the Keystone XL pipeline and pausing new oil leases on government land. This shows that energy will indeed have a tougher regulatory path over the next four years.
At this point, though, it’s more than priced into the energy stocks. Crude oil has been in a brutal bear market since 2014. Even under a pro-energy Trump administration, the energy stocks still performed dreadfully. The truth is that global economics and geopolitics are more important than environmental regulations.
And, on that note, things should finally be looking up. With vaccine deployment in full swing, the global economy should pick up. Oil-guzzling services, such as international jet travel, should come roaring back by the end of 2021. Ignore the political noise.
President Biden isn’t a hard-nosed opponent of the oil industry. And, regardless, what’s more important is that supply and demand should finally pick up this year, helping companies like ExxonMobil earn sharply higher profit margins.
Boeing is on sale for multiple reasons. It has its well-known scandal and safety problems. The aviation market is in a tailspin thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic. And there’s also the issue that President Trump is out of office and thus traders are reacting to that as well.
BA stock has a defense component, so it’s hit by the same fears discussed previously in this article.
And you’ve got the unique “Made in America” angle. This is to say that Boeing is one of America’s most famous manufacturers, so Trump’s protectionist policies were seen as a major plus. Plus, the Trump Administration’s quick efforts to push the Federal Reserve toward more lending helped save Boeing during its darkest hours last spring.
However, there’s a more nuanced view here. Consider that Boeing has gotten its MAX planes recertified in Canada, the U.S., Europe, and Japan. The major holdout? China. Analysts suggest that Washington’s tough stance on trade had hurt Boeing in the Chinese market even discounting the safety scandals. Thus, if Biden ushers in smoother relations between China and the U.S., BA stock would be a beneficiary.
Yet, at this point, Boeing is still stuck on the tarmac. Shares are down 30% over the past year. Even discounting pre-pandemic pricing, BA stock is flat since last summer, meanwhile the stock market has been on a massive run.
GEO Group (GEO)
GEO Group is one of the two major publicly traded private prison operators. Traders know it as a popular Trump stock. Its shares soared 50% in the weeks after Trump’s 2016 election victory. That made sense, as the private prisons had been under fire for years, but Trump gave them temporary reprieve.
In 2020, things played out differently. Trump didn’t win re-election, and GEO stock has remained in the dumps. On the face of it, you can see why. The Biden Administration rolled out a splashy executive order on the subject. It blocks the Justice Department from contracting with private prisons. That might sound like a nightmare scenario for Geo.
However, read the fine print and it only applies to around 14,000 federal inmates. Meanwhile, the far larger source of federal prison inmates is Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and the Biden decision does nothing in regard to ICE. For GEO specifically, in 2019, for example, the federal Bureau of Prisons was just 12% of GEO’s revenues, while ICE made up 29%.
Geo has a bunch of operations internationally. It also contracts directly with state governments; those contracts aren’t under Biden’s control either.
Investors valued GEO stock at $16 last year, and $11 prior to the election. Hence, the current sub-$9 price could make an attractive entry point for this Trump stock.
On the date of publication, Ian Bezek held a long position in GD and XOM stock.
Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.