Thursday was an incredibly bullish day for wild stocks. The small-caps were strongest adding 3% in two days. The best example was the explosion in AMC (NYSE:AMC) up 35% Thursday alone. That tornado included most EV stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Nio (NYSE:NIO) rose 2% and 3% respectively. You had to look hard to find weaknesses. Found it! Churchill Capital Corp (NYSE:CCIV) stock somehow managed to close down while other soared.
This is the company bringing Lucid Motors to market. Spoiler alert, I love the car but not so much the stock.
The main reason it won’t make my buy list yet is the lack of fundamentals. I don’t normally mind expensive stocks but I do need actual fundamentals first.
CCIV stock is still pre-revenue, so there are absolutely no tangibles to use for bait. The entire stock price is of hope of future successes. That’s too many variables for me to quantify. When we run out of quantifiable risk elsewhere, I will venture into the dark horses like this one.
Opportunity Is Real, But Not Like This
The EV revolution is very real thanks to the work that Tesla did. Even that company needed many miracles to succeed, and arguably Elon Musk was the X factor. Without him it would not have happened and there is only one of him. The rest of the e-fleet will have to create their own miracles. The main problem for me within this EV opportunity is that Lucid targets a niche market.
This is not an insult, but a definition of its target audience. It may have mass appeal but it won’t be a populous vehicle. The cars are gorgeous but the starting price is about twice that of Tesla’s. This by definition includes only an elite minority chunk of us. I am not down right bearish on the stock, but I am realistic about its upside expectations.
In previous writings I suggested bullish trades by selling puts at $15 per share and those yielded profits. There are better EV stock opportunities now and my top three are Tesla, XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) and Nio. The EV opportunity is real enough that the legacy automakers embraced it. Recently, Ford made headlines with its electrified F150.
How to Trade CCIV Stock
CCIV stock is in the right place, so the trick is to find the right entry into the stock. Since the February pop, it has been in a descending channel, so investors are more likely looking for exit points. Case in point, at the end of April, I wrote about taking the advantage of that spike to exit the stock and fade it. That decision would have saved investors 30% of pain.
I still suggest that it makes for a great trading stock rather than an investment. This can change once they come to market with cheaper models. The problem with these stocks is that they move fast in both directions. Traders need strong charting skills to win. Currently, the bulls are trying to make a stand at $17.50. They have defended it well twice already and that’s the first step in finding a bottom. Stocks need to stop making lower lows before rallying back.
The next challenge is to deal with the resistance above. CCIV stock will find sellers above $21 per share and even more of them as it approaches $25. It is OK for it to fail there for the next few weeks as long as it holds upside momentum. I would not want to be long if, for whatever reason, the May 13 low fails. The downside scenario from there would bring it back to single digits. This is not my forecast, but it would be a technical bearish development if it happens.
For some reason, the new breed of investors are very passionate about their stocks. Things are working in their favor because of days like yesterday.
For example, there was no real reason why Rocket (NYSE:RKT) stock would soar 10% on no news – yet it happened. There will come a time where the price action normalizes and then the real tests come. Intestinal fortitude is easy when with the government is funding the rally with trillions.
On the date of publication, Nicolas Chahine did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com.
