Boosted by the late May/early June wave of meme stock madness, Blackberry (NYSE:BB) stock seemed primed to repeat the “to the moon” moves it made last winter. But with its slide in recent days, the ship has clearly sailed. Not only for shares in this familiar tech play, but for meme stocks in general as well.
Traders active on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets subreddit may have helped drive retail speculator interest again for this stock, as well as the most popular meme stock plays like AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) and GameStop (NYSE:GME). Yet, unless you got in right as this latest round started, you’re likely late to the party.
Sure, in the case of this stock, it has some appeal that goes beyond its meme stock status. Blackberry the company has moved beyond the smartphones and devices that made it a household name. Today, it’s a cybersecurity/internet of things (IoT) play, that in the coming years could scale back into a multi-billion dollar business.
It also holds a large patent portfolio, which it’s in the process of selling. But while there’s likely value here, today’s share price more than reflects it. So, what’s the best move from here? If you like it for its fundamentals, wait for BB stock to pull back further towards its pre-meme price levels.
The Second BB Stock Reddit Rally Ended Fast
After the roller-coaster ride many of them went on in January and February, meme stocks (including Blackberry) took a breather during the spring. Chalk most of this up to another hotbed of speculation, crypto, stealing meme stocks’ thunder. But in the aftermath of the mid-May crypto crash, this pool of investors returned to their old stomping grounds.
With the most popular plays, they came back with a vengeance. AMC experienced a parabolic move that made its turbo-charged rally in the winter look tame by comparison. GameStop failed to get back to its all-time highs ($483 per share). But the Reddit army certainly tried to short-squeeze it back to its high-water mark.
Yet, for BB stock? If you can recall, during its first meme stock wave, shares went from around $7.50 per share, up to as high as $28.77 per share. Investors in this recent round saw a nice pop, but not quite on par with the first one. From May 25 through June 3, it soared from $8.64 to more than $20.
But after that, the Reddit rally ended before it really even started. Similar to the short-lived pop in Clover Health (NASDAQ:CLOV) stock, the early movers took profit and those who hopped on the bandwagon too late experienced losses. Blackberry has now fallen back to around $12.75 per share. Yet, it’s still too early for those interested in its merits as a turnaround and/or value play.
There’s Potential, But it’s Fully Priced into Shares
Blackberry’s meme stock catalyst may be in the midst of fizzling out. Its days of being a major smartphone brand are now far in the past. But in its new life, as a cybersecurity and IoT software provider, it’s been able to stabilize its revenue, after years of consistent decline.
As InvestorPlace’s Louis Navellier discussed June 11, there’s big potential with several of the company’s new products. These include both its Optics 3.0 and Gateway cybersecurity products, as well as its QNX automotive IoT software. If these products find big success, it’ll likely help push the company’s annual revenue back well above $1 billion. If that’s not enough, the company has a not-so-hidden asset, in the form of its patent portfolio.
In short, there’s more in play for this company than just its (fading) meme stock appeal. The problem? Its current market capitalization ($7.24 billion) likely more than reflects the value of its core operating business, which is projected to generate between $675 million and $715 million in revenue this year. Even the patent portfolio, while extensive, may be at most worth $450 million.
Unlike some of the chancier meme stocks, there’s at least some substance to fall back on, as the hype fades. Yet, likely not enough to make shares a worthwhile buy at $12.75 per share.
The Bottom Line
In the coming years, as it monetizes its legacy IP portfolio and works to grow its cybersecurity and IoT software units, Blackberry could stage a full-on comeback. If it gets back into high-growth mode, investors may reward it, by pushing BB stock back towards the heights it reached during both fleeting meme stock waves.
Even without the meme stock angle, not all is lost with BB stock. But fully priced at today’s levels, you may want to wait for it to fall back to single-digit prices before making a wager on its possible recovery.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Thomas Niel, a contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.