Roughly 10 weeks ago, I boldly predicted that 2022 could be a “whole new ballgame” for SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock. I was pretty bullish on the company’s new charter to operate a bank subsidiary, SoFi Bank. As it turns out, this surely is a new ballgame for SoFi — just not as anyone predicted.
SOFI stock is down more than 50% since the beginning of the year and down by 14.7% in the last month. Just over the last week, SOFI shed more than 10% of its value. And those losses seem to be accelerating. Last week, SoFi lowered its 2022 guidance from $1.57 billion to $1.47 billion in adjusted net revenue, which is less than the $1.5 billion consensus estimate from analysts. The company also lowered its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance from $180 million to $100 million — far less than the consensus guidance of $173.6 million.
The culprit, of course, is the federal government’s extension of the federal student loan payment moratorium for another four months to Aug. 31. The moratorium went into effect during the Covid-19 pandemic. Even though the unemployment rate continues to be low, Washington has been reluctant to put federal student loan payments back into business. That is a huge impact for SOFI stock, which has a booming business in student loans. And without that revenue coming back in, SoFi is essentially forced to float the expense of those loans at least through the summer — and perhaps longer.
When SOFI stock went public last summer as part of a blank-check special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V, shares were trading at more than $25. Now, you can pick up SOFI stock for less than $7.50 per share.
Analysts are still recommending SOFI stock, but are lowering their price estimates accordingly:
- Citi (NYSE:C) analyst Ashwin Shirvaikar maintained a “buy” rating, but cut the firm’s price target from $20 to $17.
- Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) analyst Mihir Bhatia maintained a “neutral” rating and cut the firm’s price target from $14 to $12.
- Wedbush analyst David Chiaverini kept an “outperform” rating but cut his price target from $20 to $15.
- Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) analyst Dan Dolev kept a “buy” rating but cut the firm’s price target from $17 to $14.
- Oppenheimer (NYSE:OPY) analyst Dominic Gabriele maintained an “outperform” rating but cut the price target from $18 to $13.
If you’re holding SOFI stock, this is most likely where you’re going to see a bottom. Should the stock drop to the $5 mark, however, then there is something seriously wrong with this once-promising stock.
On the date of publication, Patrick Sanders did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.