Stock Market Crash Alert: Brace Yourself for ‘Higher for Longer’

Advertisement

  • Investors are paying close attention to equity markets this morning after yesterday’s brutal selloff.
  • The S&P 500 fell more than 1.5% Thursday, seemingly a reaction to the Fed’s hawkish sentiment at its Wednesday policy meeting.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that rates are likely to stay higher for longer, while leaving the door open for even more rate hikes this year.
stock market crash - Stock Market Crash Alert: Brace Yourself for ‘Higher for Longer’

Source: MDart10 / Shutterstock

Wall Street is aflutter with concerns of an impending stock market crash after investors hit the “sell” button Thursday. This followed a surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve policy meeting. The takeaway from the Fed’s sixth Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year was to expect rates to stay higher for longer, even as recession concerns continue to bubble over.

Indeed, Wednesday’s Fed meeting is continuing to make waves with investors. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the benchmark rate would likely stay elevated through the end of next year. Powell told reporters that Fed members project the benchmark rate will end this year at 5.6%, and 5.1% at the end of 2024. This suggests that the tight monetary environment will likely persist for the foreseeable future. Powell also hinted at more rate hikes depending on the results of incoming economic data:

“If you look at the [Summary of Economic Projections], as you obviously will have done, you will see that the majority of participants believe that it is more likely than not that it will be appropriate for us to raise rates one more time in the two remaining meetings this year. Others believe that we have already reached that. So it’s something where we’re not making a decision about that question by deciding to just maintain the rate and await further data.”

Higher lending rates generally slow down economic growth, as measured by consumer spending and hiring. With inflation taking a turn for the worse, as per last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the Fed may be tempted to raise rates again before year’s end, potentially fanning the flames of a economic downturn.

Hawkish Fed Inflames Stock Market Crash Woes

The bears have been out to play since the Fed meeting. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% on Thursday, its sharpest drop since March. Meanwhile, many U.S. treasury yield curves are at 15-year highs, reflecting a flight-to-safety trend among investors.

Treasuries in particular have been a point of concern among economists. The three-month and 10-year Treasury curves, as well as the two-year and 10-year yields have been oscillating in and out of inversion over the past 11 months or so. Inverted yield curves, specifically between the two-year/10-year curves and three-month/10-year curves, are considered notoriously accurate recession predictors.

At the same time, many of the biggest winners of this year are quickly losing steam. Over the past two days, tech giants Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) have each lost more than 5.5%. Meanwhile, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is flirting with its lowest stock price in nearly five months.

Economists predicted a recession would hit the U.S. at some point in the second half of the year. With October and November quickly approaching, some investors have already started abandoning their positions ahead of an expected fall in earnings.

That said, stocks have opened in the green today, seemingly a response to yesterday’s surprise selloff. Whether equity markets close up this week, however, remains to be seen. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is down a little more than 2% since Monday.

On the date of publication, Shrey Dua did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2023/09/stock-market-crash-alert-brace-yourself-for-higher-for-longer/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC