People long have considered e-commerce and cloud giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) invincible, but that support has been waning for Amazon stock. In fact, as of Thursday, Aug. 30, Amazon is now the market’s most shorted stock, with a short interest in dollars of $9.95 billion, slightly above Tesla’s $9.93 billion short interest.
So, Move over Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).
Tesla has been the poster-child for heavily shorted stocks because, simply, it was the most heavily shorted U.S. stock in the market for a long time.
To be fair, this says nothing about the number of traders betting against Amazon stock. Instead, it is a reflection of a massive surge in Amazon’s price.
Total short interest in dollars is calculated by taking the number of shares short and multiplying it by the share price. Think of it as a market cap for shares short. Thus, as share price goes up, total short interest in dollars goes up.
Over the past year, the stock price has more than doubled. TSLA stock price has dropped 15%.
Moreover, Amazon’s market cap is $980 billion. Total short interest is under $10 billion. Thus, you are talking about a short interest ratio of 1%. That is anemic and meaningless.
Just like the headline that Amazon stock is now the most shorted stock in the U.S. This is meaningless. Nothing about Amazon becoming the most-shorted U.S. stock will derail this company’s robust secular growth narrative, or knock the red-hot Amazon stock off course. Instead, regardless of a $10 billion and climbing short interest, Amazon will keep heading higher.
Short Interest Doesn’t Really Say Much
The big headline being thrown around is that Amazon is now the most heavily shorted stock in terms of dollars. But, that statistic doesn’t really matter and is meaningless without context.
Yes, there are $10 billion out there that are betting on Amazon stock going down and that does make Amazon the most heavily shorted stock in the U.S. But Amazon also has a market cap nearing $1 trillion, so you are talking about a short interest ratio of 1%.
Compare that to Tesla. Short interest there is also right around $10 billion. Tesla’s market cap is $50 billion. That means Tesla has a short interest ratio of 20%.
So, yes, Amazon is the most heavily shorted stock in the market. But, that is just because Amazon is so big. Who are the other most shorted U.S. stocks outside of Amazon and Tesla? Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX).
Who are the biggest U.S. stocks by market cap? Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Facebook.
Note the overlap, and realize that short interest in terms of dollars is meaningless unless you look at it relative to market cap. In Amazon’s case, when you compare short interest to market cap, you realize that there really aren’t that many bears out there.
Amazon Has Huge Growth Prospects
In the big picture, there shouldn’t be many Amazon stock bears out there right now.
While Amazon has a huge valuation, the company’s growth prospects are even bigger. The ecommerce business is colossal, still growing at a rapid rate, and has lots of growth left when you consider that ecommerce sales in the U.S. still only represent 10% of total retail sales.
Meanwhile, the cloud business is even more dominant, also still growing at a rapid rate, and has perhaps even bigger growth potential when you consider the amount of data globally migrating to the cloud.
Then, there is the digital advertising space, which has huge growth potential. Amazon’s ad business is still relatively small. But, Amazon is the one of the most visited websites in the world. Thus, Amazon has realistic potential to scale its ad business to Facebook and Google sizes over the next several years as more ad dollars flow into the digital channel.
Longer-term, this is company that will likely morph into a dominant logistics provider, a dominant e-pharma company, a dominant smart home products maker, and a dominant offline retail player, among other things. When you add up all the potential markets Amazon will attack over the next several years, you are talking about a $50 trillion and up opportunity.
Thus, a $1 trillion valuation doesn’t seem all that silly.
Further, the company has a track record of “growing into its valuation.” Over the past five years, Amazon’s earnings have gone from essentially nothing to $12 per share.
Meanwhile, the trailing earnings multiple has gone from over 1,000X to 150X. In other words, earnings have surged higher, and the valuation has compressed. This is the textbook definition of growing into a valuation.
This will continue (earnings projected at $17 per share this year and $25 per share next year), and Amazon stock will keep heading higher.
Bottom Line on Amazon Stock
Amazon is now the most shorted U.S. stock, and that doesn’t matter. It is only the most shorted stock because share price has soared. The share price will continue to soar over the next several years as profits surge, allowing the valuation to normalize, a dynamic which will attract more and more buyers.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TSLA, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, and FB.