Just few months ago, Wall Street was kicking FireEye Inc (NASDAQ:FEYE) to the curb. It was a tech has-been. Washed up. Finished.
Well, of course, FEYE stock has proven to be quite durable. Since mid-March, the shares have gained an impressive 50%. Yes, in the tech world, things can move fast.
So what now? Is FEYE stock still a good value?
Reasons to Feel Good about FEYE Stock
Well, as for the core fundamentals, it’s understandable why investors have quickly turned bullish. Just look at the earnings report for Q1. Revenues came in at $173.7 million and the net loss was 9 cents on FEYE stock. The Street, on the other hand, was looking for the top-line to hit only $163.7 million, with a loss of 26 cents a share.
The guidance was also encouraging. For the current quarter, FEYE expects revenues of $176 million and a loss of 12 cents a share. This compares to the consensus estimate of a 14 cent loss and revenues of $173 million.
All this is a testament to the company’s standout CEO, Kevin Mandia. Since coming on board a year ago, he has wasted little time in taking swift action — such as by making judicious cost cuts as well as pulling off a transition to the cloud.
Note that the company has recently launched the Helix platform, which is a full-on suite of services that span from firewalls to event management. According to Mandia, during the latest earnings call:
“It is still very early in the Helix lifecycle, but we are already seeing positive signs. Even though we released Helix on the last day of the quarter, we closed Helix deals on that day in four different vertical markets, including an energy company and a leading apparel company. Two of these customers are brand-new logos to FireEye. The Helix deals drove incremental product sales as well, in both new and existing customers, including NX sales, HX sales and cloud e-mail. These incremental product purchases represent a substantial increase in our transaction sizes for those deals. We’re also seeing early validation that Helix plus FireEye as a Service, is a compelling combination.”
All great, right? Definitely. Yet I still think there should be some caution with FEYE stock. Let’s face it, tech turnarounds can be choppy. This is especially the case for companies that sell enterprise software, which often has prolonged sales cycles. Besides, there is probably still some skepticism from customers because of FireEye’s stumbles during the past couple years.
Something else: There are some technical factors at work with FEYE stock. Keep in mind that about 19% of the float is in short positions. In other words, some of the recent price action is probably due to a short squeeze (this is when short sellers buy stock to unwind their trades).
OK then, but what about the impact of the notorious “WannaCry” cyberattack? Shouldn’t this be a catalyst for more momentum for FEYE stock?
I’m not convinced. From time to time, there are high-profile outbreaks, which result in nice gains for cybersecurity stocks. And the recent episode is no exception. There have been strong moves from operators like Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ:FTNT), Proofpoint Inc (NASDAQ:PFPT), Palo Alto Networks Inc (NYSE:PANW) and Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:CHKP). Even BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) participated in the rally, as the company has focused more on its security business.
But this action is likely more about traders aggressively snagging short-term gains. After all, there are already indications that the virus is fading, as companies have implemented the patches and upgrades from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT).
Now, it’s true that I’ve been bullish on FEYE stock for some time. But again, it appears that the shares have already baked in quite a bit of the potential of the turnaround efforts. So in light of this, it’s probably better to hold off right now and wait for a better price.
Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook as well as OptionExercise.com, which provides interactive tools & services for employee stock options of pre/post IPO companies. Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.