Facebook Inc (FB) Stock Is Not the One You Should Worry About

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FB stock - Facebook Inc (FB) Stock Is Not the One You Should Worry About

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There’s a bit of unease in the stock market at the moment. Volatility has rebounded from historic lows. And large-cap tech stocks like Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) have pulled back — albeit modestly — from all-time highs reached after a huge run over the first seven months of 2017. Facebook stock has pulled back 5% over the past few weeks, after FB stock hit an all-time high of $175 in late July.

Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) Stock Is Not the One You Should Worry About

Admittedly, there’s room for worry. The U.S. economy is growing, but hardly at a spectacular pace. By several measures, valuations in the broad market are at the highest levels since 2007 — right before the financial crisis. And U.S. equities haven’t had any real sort of real pullback since February 2016.

But as far as Facebook stock goes, there’s no need for panic, or even concern. FB stock remains the only social media stock that matters. Any market pullback that brings Facebook stock down only creates an opportunity. Every decline over the past four years has offered such an opportunity – and there’s little reason to argue that this time is different.

Facebook Stock Isn’t Recession-Proof, But It Might Be Close

In theory, investors should adjust for economic cycles, paying lower multiple at the top of the cycle and doing the reverse at the bottom. In practice, quite obviously, that’s not the way it works.

The cyclical nature of the market means that investors will pay a premium for so-called defensive stocks, those that can manage through economic downturns with profits reasonably intact. Classic defensive stocks are consumer staples plays like Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG), or defense/government plays like Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT).

But more and more Facebook stock looks like a potential defensive play. Obviously, the company’s revenue comes from advertising – and there’s an argument that a recession (or worse) would lead advertisers to pull back. But user engagement likely wouldn’t change at all. Facebook is free, after all, and concerned or unemployed users might even increase their time on the site.

And would those advertisers really leave the site? It seems unlikely. If anything, companies facing slowing revenue would look to either increase their advertising, in an effort to combat sales declines, or focus on getting more efficiency from that spend. With Facebook and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) essentially controlling the US online advertising market, that shift could be a tailwind for both companies. And as Alphabet continues to struggle with an advertiser boycott and other problems, Facebook looks much better-positioned of the two.

This is not to say that Facebook’s sales and earnings would increase in a recession. But FB stock would enjoy a buffer, given that engagement and user growth figures likely wouldn’t change, and that shifts within ad spending might offset the impact of overall weakness. Facebook stock might not the best defensive play. Still, it would be more of a defensive play than some investors might realize.

Yes, FB Stock Still Is Cheap

And the fact remains that FB stock still is cheap enough to have some wiggle room on valuation. Even though Facebook stock is up over 800% from post-IPO lows, and even though it’s gained 45% so far this year, its valuation still looks reasonable.

FB stock trades at about 26x 2018 EPS estimates. Backing out the company’s $12+ per share in cash, that figure falls below 24x. Users are still growing at a double-digit clip. In fact, Facebook added more users in the last year than Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) has added – ever.

There are stocks in the market with valuation questions. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) looks potentially stretched. Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has a great story – but one that more and more looks priced in. Facebook stock simply isn’t in that category. In fact, it’s valued closer to The Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) from an earnings standpoint than it is to high-flyers like TSLA and NVDA.

If the broad market turns, Facebook stock no doubt will take a hit. But that hit likely will be smaller than that taken by large-cap peers. And any discount to the current price, even after the huge run over the past few years, represents a discount to the fair value of FB stock.

After all, this is a dominant franchise in a key – and growing – industry. It still has room to grow internationally. It still has new opportunities in its Marketplace business. Instagram and WhatsApp still haven’t reached their potential. There’s simply a lot of going right for Facebook stock – plus a valuation that suggests a near-term slowdown in growth.

The market will move where it moves, and it will impact Facebook stock. But in the long run, FB stock still will be a winner. And that’s true in part because it’s well-equipped to manage any short-term weakness – and likely better equipped than many investors realize.

As of this writing, Vince Martin did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

After spending time at a retail brokerage, Vince Martin has covered the financial industry for close to a decade for InvestorPlace.com and other outlets.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/08/facebook-inc-fb-stock-not-one-worry/.

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