Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) continues to earn business as it becomes an increasingly competitive threat to its rivals. However, over the last year, traders appear to have priced in the company’s increasing prominence. Consequently, AMD stock has formed a price ceiling that continues to hold.
However, in recent weeks, the stock has fallen to the lower end of its range. Given this decline, investors may benefit from a possible trade, or with a little patience, open a long-term position.
AMD Stock Falls as Company Wins New Business
AMD scored another coup as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) agreed to use AMD’s Ryzen 5 and Ryzen 7 chips in the Surface Laptop 3. This represents another victory over Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), the long-time rival that dominated AMD during the PC era.
These victories have also gained the attention of analysts. Sony (NYSE:SNE) will also use AMD chips in its soon-to-be-released PlayStation 5. This just attracted the attention of Citic Securities. It initiated coverage on AMD stock, giving it a “buy” recommendation and setting the one-year price target at $35 per share.
Such wins bolster what our own Dana Blankenhorn refers to as the “legend” of Dr. Lisa Su. Still, despite this success, AMD stock continues its pattern of range-bound trading. After again approaching a mid-$30s per share high in July, it has seen a slow drop since that time. Investors should also note that Citic’s $35 per share price target comes close to that ceiling.
The good news here is that chartists may have a buy point. Although I do not share the negative sentiment of my colleague Josh Enomoto, I think he states correctly that the honeymoon for AMD stock has ended. Consequently, it has fallen below the 50-day moving average.
However, the 200-day moving average has held for years. This average now stands at $27.45 per share, only about $1 per share below the current price of Advanced Micro Devices stock.
Expect the Price Ceiling to Hold
This has begun to make AMD stock at least a trade. However, that does not mean that the mid-$30s per share price ceiling will break the next time it moves higher.
Given the trajectory of the company, the ceiling cannot hold forever. The forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio now stands at 28. That comes in slightly higher than the S&P 500 average of around 21.8.
At current levels, I think the ceiling can hold. For one, companies like Intel and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) have begun to take AMD’s competitive threats seriously. For this reason, the company must keep innovating, though AMD shows no signs of slowing down.
Moreover, I think doubts about the performance of AMD’s 7nm chips continue to linger. First came the charges that it could not consistently meet performance benchmarks. Now, production limits with its manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), have led to supply constraints.
AMD remains ahead of Intel even with its issues. Also, I do not see any long-term damage to Advanced Micro Devices stock. However, it gives traders yet another reason to question the valuation of AMD stock if it again approaches the mid-$30s per share level.
The Bottom Line on Advanced Micro Devices Stock
Given the decline, AMD stock has become at least a trade. Thanks to a move back toward the lower end of its range, traders might find opportunity here. As mentioned before, the current AMD stock price stands at about $1 per share above the 200-day moving average. AMD has not fallen significantly below that level in 2019. If it fell to the 200-day moving average, traders have room for about 25% upside even if it again fails to breach the mid-$30s per share level.
Current metrics and conditions indicate that it may not break through that upper limit for the foreseeable future. However, Wall Street estimates average growth of 35.81% per annum over the next five years. Hence, from a valuation and growth standpoint, AMD stock is a buy.
If AMD does not move significantly higher soon, the falling PE will make that ceiling untenable. At that point, Advanced Micro Devices should shoot much higher.
As of this writing, Will Healy did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks. You can follow Will on Twitter at @HealyWriting.
