Should You Buy Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) (TEVA) Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

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You would be forgiven for thinking Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) (NYSE:TEVA) has profoundly bad luck. It seems everything that could go wrong for the company pretty much has over the past year. TEVA stock, which traded as high as $54 last summer, is now down to $31.

Should You Buy Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) (TEVA) Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

Remarkably enough, management doesn’t seem to have committed many grave errors. Teva finds itself largely guilty of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Yet, just because the situation has already gotten bad doesn’t mean it can’t get worse. Will Teva manage to reverse its sinking fortunes, or should you sell now, before TEVA stock goes even lower?

TEVA Stock Cons

Copaxone Threatened: While Teva Pharmaceuticals is a generic pharma company, it does benefit from some branded patented drugs as well. Copaxone has delivered huge profits to Teva over the years. The multiple sclerosis drug still makes up 20% of Teva’s profits, even today.

That said, Copaxone faces increasing danger. Already the 20 milligram dose of the original version of Copaxone has gone generic and faces competition. Teva was counting on its 40 milligram version to keep profits going; that version, in theory, is patented until 2030.

However a U.S. patent court struck down several of Teva’s patents related to the 40-milligram Copaxone, and it is unclear if Teva will have any legal methods to restore those patents. If not, Teva could lose close to 20% of its profits in the near future. Teva’s last quarterly results showed Copaxone revenue up 6%, but this could reverse on a dime if the patent issue isn’t resolved favorably.

Dividend In Trouble?: Many people own TEVA stock for its dividend. Teva Pharmaceuticals used to be an amazing dividend growth play. Over the past 10 years, Teva has grown its dividend at a breathtaking compounded rate of 20%/year.

However, the gravy train has come to a halt. The company stopped hiking its dividend in 2015. As the free cash flow stream sputters, it looks increasingly impractical to pay a larger dividend. In fact, more people now speculate that Teva may be forced to cut its dividend if the business doesn’t improve soon. Enjoy the 4.4% dividend yield on TEVA stock for now, but be aware that it may not last forever.

Earnings Stalled Out: Historically, Teva has grown earnings at a fast pace. However, the market has fundamentally changed. In addition to its unique Copaxone problem, Teva is suffering from broader pressures on generic drug pricing.

For many years, generic drug makers could hike prices steadily with little resistance. The U.S. government, among others, is now actively investigating this behavior. The healthcare cost crackdown that Hillary Clinton set in motion on the campaign trail in 2015 continues to bear bitter fruit for many healthcare companies. Just last week, generic drug stocks plunged again following news that the government raided offices of Perrigo Company plc Ordinary Shares (NYSE:PRGO) as part of a generic drug price-fixing investigation.

TEVA Stock Pros

Very Cheap Stock: TEVA stock bears will say the company can’t grow earnings. Bulls respond with a simple “who cares?” because TEVA stock now trades at just 6.5x 2017 earnings. When you can buy a business that cheaply, not much needs to go right to make big returns.

In an ideal world, Teva would grow earnings. As it is, the business is basically flat for 2017, yet TEVA stock has fallen off a cliff. Even assuming Copaxone revenue dives in 2018, the stock still trades at a single-digit PE ratio if the other divisions merely put up level results. Short sellers run a dangerous game betting against TEVA stock at 6.5x earnings and at multi-year lows.

That Dividend: Many spectators are suggesting that Teva will — or should — cut its dividend. But, the math doesn’t bear out any need for this to happen. Based on 2017 company guidance, the company will earn $4.90-$5.30 per share in 2017.

The dividend, by contrast, is just $1.36 per share annually. And yes, Teva Pharmaceuticals has a huge debt load. Management made some aggressive acquisitions and now has a stretched balance sheet. But, simple calculations dictate that if you earn $5, you can probably afford a $1.36 dividend and still pay down a reasonable amount of debt.

Short-sellers betting against TEVA stock will find their positions becoming increasingly expensive to finance as the owed dividend payments pile up.

TEVA Stock May Rebound in August: TEVA stock is currently under selling pressure for one specific reason, which will soon be resolved. Teva made a large deal with Allergan plc Ordinary Shares (NYSE:AGN) to acquire that firm’s Actavis generics unit last year. As part of the arrangement, Allergan received a massive block of TEVA stock.

Allergan has 100 million shares of TEVA that it can, and probably will, sell in August once the lock-up period ends. Even at today’s reduced price, that is still a $3 billion block of stock, making up close to 10% of Teva’s outstanding market cap.

Not surprisingly, TEVA stock has traded poorly in recent months, as market speculators have sold off shares to front-run Allergan’s possible disposal later this summer. Once Allergan sells its Teva stake, however, that negative catalyst will be gone.

Verdict for TEVA Stock

Teva has endured a terrible year. Generic drugs face intense pricing pressure. A government raid last week added an exclamation point to that already-dicey situation. Teva’s pivotal Copaxone drug lost a key patent ruling, and may soon largely disappear from the company’s earnings. And, an overly ambitious deal for Actavis has shouldered Teva with a large debt load and sizable stock overhang.

However, with TEVA stock already pummeled, it’s worth considering a long position here, especially if the stock dips once more as Allergan sells out. The recovery should be swift and powerful. Stocks don’t trade below 7x earnings forever. Unless Teva’s situation becomes significantly worse, it’s hard to see this stock not recovering, sooner or later.

As of this writing, Ian Bezek owned TEVA stock. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.

Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/05/should-you-buy-teva-pharmaceutical-industries-ltd-adr-teva-stock-3-pros-3-cons/.

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