Target Corporation May Not See the Forest for the Trees

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Target stock - Target Corporation May Not See the Forest for the Trees

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Based on nothing more than the discussion that Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) CEO Brian Cornell had with CNBC on Thursday morning, the case for owning Target stock isn’t bad. Cornell wants to make his company’s 1,828 stores the “easiest place in America to shop.” He even went on to lay out an optimistic but plausible plan to make that happen.

And yet, in spite of the well-voiced plans and clever initiatives, there’s something fundamental missing from the picture. That is, the fundamentals of retailing to the masses. Might Target be so hyper-focused on delighting customers with details that it’s missing opportunities to sell more of the basic goods consumers buy on a regular basis?

It’s a question at least worth asking, for current and prospective TGT stock owners.

Solid Earnings Report for Target Stock

There’s admittedly a certain irony in suggesting Target is struggling here in the shadow of bigger rivals like Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and will likely continue to do so. In January, the retailer reported that holiday sales grew 3.4% on a same-store basis, setting the stage for a solid earnings report when its fiscal fourth-quarter numbers are posted on March 6.

There’s also no denying the company has at least somewhat renewed its “cheap chic” reputation, with a move into low-cost but expensive-looking home goods. Its recently-unveiled (but yet to launch) Opalhouse brand of pillows, bedding, bathroom decor and more once again meld fashion and affordability.

Still, it may just not be enough to continue driving sales growth, if Amazon’s entry into the clothing arena — and the subsequent adverse impact on Target — is any indication. According to a recent Coresight Research survey, apparel shoppers are increasingly buying from Amazon, and increasingly shunning Target’s clothing. It’s a tough blow, as it’s a category that used to carry the now-beleaguered retailer.

With that as the backdrop, Target stock-holders might understandably start to question the true business-building and profit-making value of some of its other recent initiatives.

One of those other initiatives is the introduction of Stranger Things merchandise, capitalizing on the hit show produced by and only available from Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX). Undoubtedly, some fans will want to own a piece of the show. Most consumers, though, may not care. Most consumers still need plenty of the basics like T-shirts and socks. Target still offers them, but certainly doesn’t feature them.

Is Target Missing the Point?

The company’s deeper dive into the toy market, as Toys R Us struggles through bankruptcy, may be another ill-advised effort. Though there’s undoubtedly money to be made in the market, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s there for Target’s taking. Stonebridge Capital Advisors analyst Steven Roorda bluntly said of the matter, “The toy category is not a growth category. U.S. birth rates are moderating and along with children using other devices to access entertainment at an earlier age, (that) means that the toy category has been under pressure as evidenced by what is going on with (toymaker) Mattel.”

Said another way, there’s a reason Toys R Us is in trouble.

Then of course there are non-merchandise distractions. Case in point: Target recently acquired Shipt as part of a plan to handle grocery-shopping and delivery duties for busy consumers. Same-day deliveries are now possible in some markets. Non-grocery deliveries are in the works. It’s still not clear, however, if the fiscal math will ever make sense.

And almost as if it were a scripted response to Opalhouse, the upcoming overhaul of Walmart’s home goods e-commerce site makes the world’s biggest retailer look and feel as chic as Target’s effort to capture a bigger piece of that market.

If Target is going to beat its bigger brothers, it’s going to have to do it on a front where Walmart and Amazon are weak rather than focus on niche products and replicable services. The problem is there aren’t many of those soft spots. Perhaps better customer service? Perhaps guaranteed in-stock items?

Bottom Line on Target Stock

Maybe all of these side projects and niche products aren’t a waste of time and resources. Maybe they’ll serve as a draw to its stores where the company can then sell those shoppers more basic goods. And maybe Target’s smaller size is becoming an advantage, compared to the encumbering sizes of Amazon and Walmart.

“Maybe” isn’t a bet many investors can make, however.

None of this is to suggest Target’s turn-around isn’t the real deal. It’s simply to suggest that one good quarter isn’t enough to take a shot on Target stock, particularly when it’s still unclear it can do something better and cheaper than its competition can. Most of its key products are essentially a commodity, as is delivering them. More bells and whistles don’t matter if there’s nothing to attach the bell or whistle to.

Investors might be wise to see how this is really all going to play out.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/02/target-corporation-tgt-stock-may-not-see-forest-trees/.

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