Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ:ADBE) is flying in the clouds. The company reported impressive first-quarter earnings last week, and Adobe stock surged. The shares are now trading at fresh all-time highs, but how long will this bullish momentum hold?
Adobe is part of a growing swath of the software market that has taken aim at cloud computing and storage services. The company competes directly in this space against fellow behemoths Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).
Adobe’s transition to the cloud was a rocky, but ultimately successful strategy. In the first quarter, the company said it earned $1.55 per share with net earnings up more than 46%. Revenue rose 23.8% year-over-year. Considering the company Adobe keeps in the cloud computing market, these gains are quite impressive.
So much so that ADBE’s stock price has rallied more than 5% since Friday’s quarterly report — despite broader turmoil in the market. Long-term, Adobe looks like a solid buy-and-hold stock as the cloud becomes increasingly vital to corporate business operations.
Short term, however, there are signs that Adobe stock may be set to take a breather. The shares have gone on an exhaustive 28% run off their February bottom, with the last leg of this rally juiced by earnings. ADBE is now trading in overbought territory.
Historically, Adobe stock has entered consolidation mode when it’s 14-day relative-strength index (RSI) tops a reading of 70. What’s more, ADBE has a habit of trading overbought periods of up to a month. During this time, ADBE shares bounce between short-term support and resistance levels. This time around those levels should emerge near $220 and $230.
Eventually, however, Adobe stock succumbs to selling pressure and profit-taking once the euphoria wears off. Support eventually emerges at ADBE’s 50-day moving average, the shares rebound and the pattern continues.
Adobe stock price is currently in the consolidation period of this cycle. In other words, long-term ADBE bulls don’t want to buy in now or add to their positions. The stock will be cheaper down the road as the overbought situation is worked out.
That said, there is a way to profit from the pullback or even set a target price for buying into the longer-term rally — and get paid for it.
Before we get there, let’s take a look at where the options market thinks Adobe stock will be in the next month. Currently, April implieds are pricing in a potential move of about 5.67% for ADBE ahead of expiration. This places the upper bound at $243, while the lower bound rests at $217.
2 Trades for Adobe Stock
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Bear Put Spread: With Adobe stock set to consolidate and eventually pullback to work off it’s overbought status, an April $220/$225 bull call spread has potential. At last check, this spread was offered at $1.61, or $161 per pair of contracts. Breakeven rests at $223.39, while a maximum profit of $3.39, or $339 per pair of contracts, is possible if Adobe stock closes at or below $220 when April options expire.
Put Sell: Alternately, if you are looking to add Adobe stock to your portfolio at a discount, there’s an options strategy for that as well. Say you want to get in at $225 and not the current highs near $230. To do so, you could sell an April $225 put, collect the premium (currently at $4.66, or $466 per contract) and wait for ADBE to fall below your target.
If ADBE doesn’t dip below $225 before April expiration, you keep the premium received and can repeat the process next month with the May series. Remember that one contract is the equivalent of 100 shares of Adobe stock, so be prepared to shell out $22,500 per contract if your April $225 put position gets exercised.
As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.