Apple Inc. Stock Will Survive Near-Term iPhone X Issues

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Apple stock - Apple Inc. Stock Will Survive Near-Term iPhone X Issues

Source: Yanki01 via Flickr (Modified)

The markets haven’t been so bad lately. But it has been an entirely different story for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock. Apple stock has fallen more than 6% over the past few days thanks to renewed concerns regarding the iPhone X.

These concerns first popped up back in early 2018, and AAPL stock was hit hard on those worries. Analysts cut their forecasts, and it seemed Apple stock was moving forward with lower estimates.

But now, it looks like even those reduced forecasts were too high. Analysts are cutting their forecasts again. And Apple stock is dropping. Again.

It all started on April 19, when Apple’s chip-making partner Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:TSM) issued a much weaker than expected second quarter revenue forecast. The culprit? Weak high-end smartphone demand.

That roughly translates into Apple’s chip-making partner cut its guidance by a ton because the iPhone X is selling much worse than expected. As a result, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and OTR Global have all cut iPhone sales estimates for this coming quarter.

While this downdraft in Apple stock may persist, it should end after next quarter’s numbers are announced. At that point, most of the damage from weak iPhone X numbers will have been done. The attention will shift to the positives. And AAPL stock will rally.

Here’s a deeper look:

Apple Stock Will Move On

We all know the iPhone X didn’t sell that well. We’ve known this for a while (ever since holiday 2017). But now, it looks like the iPhone X is selling even worse than expected.

That is bad news for AAPL stock. The iPhone represents roughly 70% of the company’s revenues. Thus, cuts in iPhone estimates are basically cuts in 70% of the company’s business. That will result in weakness in AAPL stock. Moreover, an iPhone miss in next quarter’s earnings report could cause shares to fall even further.

But pretty soon, the iPhone X will become old news. Why? Because Apple isn’t an iPhone X company. It’s an iPhone company. And as an iPhone company, Apple is behind the largest smartphone ecosystem in the world.

So, while the iPhone X was a flop and continues to disappoint, Apple will move on and release a new iPhone this year. Then another one next year. And another one the year after that, so on and so forth. Consumers will buy one of those iPhones, the entire Apple ecosystem will grow, and Apple stock will head higher.

Because of this wide moat and mitigated risk related to iPhone X weakness, the attention on AAPL stock will soon shift from iPhone X weakness to capital spending and Services growth. Apple is still planning on reducing its massive $160 billion-plus net cash balance to zero, and that means a bigger dividend, more buybacks, and likely some juicy acquisitions.

Meanwhile, everything outside of the iPhone business seems to be doing well. The iPad business is inflecting upward. The Mac business is better off than it was a few years back, while the Apple Watch is running away with the wearables market. Apple Music is taking over the streaming music market. And Apple’s high-margin Services business continues to ramp.

Bottom Line on Apple Stock

AAPL stock is getting hammered by iPhone X concerns yet again.

But these concerns are largely near-term in nature.

Pretty soon, the attention will shift away from weak iPhone X sales and towards all the good stuff regarding capital spending, the iPad, the Apple Watch, and the Services business. That will likely happen after the company’s next earnings report.

Consequently, the outlook for AAPL stock is near-term choppy, long-term higher.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AAPL.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/apple-stock-iphone-issues/.

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