Microsoft Corporation Stock Is No Safe Haven When It Comes to Privacy

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Microsoft stock - Microsoft Corporation Stock Is No Safe Haven When It Comes to Privacy

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Data concerns are everywhere right now, and some Wall Street investors are staying away from big-tech names with big data exposure. Instead some are flocking toward names with mitigated data exposure like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT). The bull case on Microsoft stock as a safe-haven in a privacy-concerned world is pretty straightforward.

Microsoft has become a $750 billion company largely without monetizing data. Outside of LinkedIn, there really aren’t any data monetizing business at MSFT.

Instead, the company’s value comes from its robust hardware and cloud businesses, neither of which compromise user data. As such, if other tech giants get hit by data regulation, Microsoft stock should be minimally affected due to its low data exposure.

Does that thesis make sense?

Not really.

First, we don’t live in a privacy-concerned world, and data regulation won’t happen in any meaningful way any time soon.

Second, a big part of Microsoft’s business, cloud, is growing at such a huge rate due to an explosion in data. If that explosion is curtailed by regulation, then Microsoft’s cloud business could suffer.

All together, I don’t buy the thesis that Microsoft stock is a safe-haven stock to buy in a privacy-concerned world.

Here’s a deeper look:

Privacy Concerns Aren’t Really Anywhere

If you read the headlines, it seems like privacy concerns are everywhere right now.

A few months back, there was a massive data leak at Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX). More recently, a whistle-blower blew the lid open on a massive data leak involving Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB).

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) have come under pressure for how they use personal data to create targeted advertisements. Regulators are upset and the big and scary GDPR (the European Union’s attempt to protect consumer privacy) is set to go into effect soon.

According to the headlines, then, data concerns are everywhere.

But at the same time, they are also nowhere.

Since the Cambridge Analytica scandal, more than 80% of Facebook users reported having little to no confidence  that Facebook will protect their personal data. But only 15% reported using Facebook less, while a negligible amount actually deleted their Facebook accounts.

Meanwhile, there aren’t any signs out there that consumers are googling, tweeting, or snapping any less than they were before these supposed data concerns went mainstream. And although GDPR is set to go into effect soon, there isn’t anything in GDPR that could really derail data sharing. Plus, data regulation in the U.S. seems to be making essentially zero progress.

At the end of the day, the reality is that consumers don’t really care if their data is being shared. They understand that in order to get services like Facebook, Google, Twitter, and Snapchat for free, they have to pay with their data and that seems a lot less bad than paying with their own dollars.

Moreover, a majority of the time, that data sharing actually yields beneficial results for consumers in the form of highly relevant posts and ads.

As such, privacy concerns aren’t really anywhere right now.

Microsoft Stock Isn’t A Safe Haven

Even if privacy concerns were everywhere, Microsoft still wouldn’t be a safe haven.

The whole narrative at Microsoft is built around the cloud. Ever since CEO Satya Nadella took over the reigns in 2014, MSFT has transformed itself into a cloud giant. As a result, MSFT stock has roared higher.

In other words, a ton of MSFT stock’s value is from the company’s cloud businesses.

A major part of that those businesses is Microsoft’s public cloud business, which is rapidly gaining share on market-leader Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN). This business is on fire because data is on fire. The more data there is in the world, the more companies need to store that data. The more companies need to store data, the more demand for Microsoft Cloud grows.

As such, one of MSFT stock’s biggest growth drivers is data. If said data is regulated, MSFT stock would likely be adversely impacted by a significant amount, seeing as the stock’s trailing twelve month rally has been almost entirely cloud-driven.

Bottom Line on Microsoft Stock

We don’t live in a privacy concerned world. And even if we did, MSFT stock wouldn’t be a safe haven investment due to its big cloud exposure.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB, GOOG, and AMZN. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/05/microsoft-stock-safe-privacy/.

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