CEO Resignation Is Big Trouble for the Future of Intel Corporation Stock

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Intel stock - CEO Resignation Is Big Trouble for the Future of Intel Corporation Stock

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It’s an interesting time for Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and for Intel stock. After all, it’s not every day that the CEO of one of the twenty most valuable companies in the world resigns.

But that’s what happened on Thursday, as Brian Krzanich stepped down from his post. According to the company, Intel discovered a past consensual relationship with another Intel employee. That relationship violated company policy, and led directly to the resignation.

Stranger still is the fact that Intel stock initially rose on the news, opening up almost 2% before reversing. Better-than-expected guidance for Q2 likely helped, but investors for the most part have shrugged off the sudden loss of Krzanich.

That, too, seems somewhat surprising, particularly given the strong performance of Intel stock in recent quarters.

From here, the loss of Krzanich seems like worse news than the market seems to think. And it adds to my key concern about Intel stock: that the big move higher already has been made.

INTC certainly isn’t the worst stock in the market but investors in the semiconductor space, and tech more broadly, still seem like they could do better.

Is The Resignation Good News?

Certainly, from several Intel shareholders there was a “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” response to Krzanich’s departure.

Many observers already were upset by Krzanich’s large stock sale in January, just before the disclosure of the Meltdown and Specture flaws. On this site, Dana Blankenhorn argued that Krzanich should have been fired at that point.

Others have argued that Intel’s technological edge has slipped under Krzanich’s leadership. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has made clear progress in becoming a legitimate competitor to Intel in CPUs.

Both AMD and Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) are targeting Intel’s dominance in data centers.

Analyst Ryan Shrout of Shrout Research cited that pressure, along with efforts from Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) , in his argument that Intel needed a new CEO anyway.

All that said, it’s not as if Intel has been hopeless under Krzanich. From May 16, 2013, when Krzanich took over as CEO from Paul Otellini, until the day before the resignation, Intel stock gained 123%. It’s returned 150%+ including dividends.

To be fair, the chip space has been hot. INTC’s performance actually lags that of the benchmark Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (both excluding and including dividends).

AMD has quadrupled; Nvidia, somewhat incredibly, has risen 18-fold.

But it’s not as if Intel stock has been a disaster under Krzanich’s leadership. This isn’t a situation akin to that of General Electric Company (NYSE:GE), whose stock gained over 3% when Jeff Immelt stepped down last June. And in this key period, being without a leader seems like a negative for Intel.

Intel Stock Still Looks About Right

That said, there is an opportunity for Intel here. As Tom Warren wrote at The Verge, Intel looks a lot like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) did a few years ago.

Like Microsoft, Intel was slow to embrace mobile, and both companies bailed on large initiatives in that space. Microsoft abandoned Windows Phone; Intel’s Atom fell by the wayside.

That analogy in turn means that Intel needs to find its own Satya Nadella. But I’m skeptical it will be that simple for Intel. Pivoting in the software space is much easier than in the chip industry.

Intel has the same problem Microsoft had, a heavy reliance on PCs and servers, both of which look like declining categories long-term, but it doesn’t have the same solutions.

And with INTC stock still hovering in the low 50s, there’s still some growth priced in at a ~13x forward EPS multiple. It will take some expert maneuvering from the new Intel CEO to drive that growth.

Intel’s core products are under attack. It doesn’t have a whole lot of growth opportunities elsewhere, save for the automotive market opened by the acquisition of Mobileye.

That means that a good chunk of the growth potential for a company worth $250 billion is coming from an acquisition that cost just $15 billion. It seems like a big ask. And unless a new CEO can overhaul Intel, and find a quick way to fend off rising competition, I don’t think that acquisition – or anything else – is going to be enough to move Intel stock materially higher.

As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned.

After spending time at a retail brokerage, Vince Martin has covered the financial industry for close to a decade for InvestorPlace.com and other outlets.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/06/ceo-resignation-is-big-trouble-for-the-future-of-intel-corporation-stock/.

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