Microsoft Stock Could Reach $130 This Year

MSFT stock - Microsoft Stock Could Reach $130 This Year

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According to the latest estimates, the analyst community thinks Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares are going to be worth $119.93 at some point in the foreseeable future. That’s only about 12% higher than where MSFT stock is currently priced, which isn’t a bad trade, but certainly not a must-have.

There are a handful of outlier price targets, however, that have to leave present and prospective shareholders curious if not downright bullish.

Deutsche Bank and Piper Jaffray are just a couple of research outfits expecting MSFT stock to reach $130, presumably sooner than later. That target is more than 20% above the stock’s present value, even if more than 28 times next year’s projected per-share income.

Is such a target simply too much, too soon (and subsequently out of reach)? Maybe. Given the company’s newfound leadership within the cloud computing market and its penchant for topping earnings expectations, though, the lofty price targets may actually be spot-on.

What Analysts Said

The prod for a slew of raised targets was the release of the software giant’s fiscal fourth quarter numbers on Friday morning. Revenue of $30.09 billion was not only up 17% year-over-year, but beat estimates of $29.2 billion.

Per-share profits of $1.13 were better than the $1.08 analysts were modeling. And, it was the fifth quarter in a row Microsoft had topped earnings estimates (it’s only fallen short once in the past four years).

The cloud” was the breadwinner. Commercial cloud sales were up 53% YOY, led by the Azure platform’s 89% increase in revenue.

By the way, depending on how you count market share, Microsoft’s cloud business is now bigger than that of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), IBM (NYSE:IBM) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG).

Even if one doesn’t count market share in a way that says Microsoft’s cloud arm is the biggest in the business, though, the fact that the discussion is even happening speaks volumes.

It’s more than good enough for Deutsche Bank analyst Karl Keirstead, who wrote in response to the company’s fourth quarter report, “That magnitude of acceleration at Microsoft’s scale speaks to strong execution and cloud traction as well as a very healthy overall corporate IT spending backdrop.”

Deutsche Bank added, “The 3QF18 print was terrific, and this one was even better, highlighted by MSFT’s very confident tone about the FY19 growth outlook and continued strong corporate IT spend.”

Piper Jaffray’s Alex Zukin was largely speaking of Microsoft’s commercial cloud arm when he noted of his price target hike (from $123), “With the company’s sales organization firing on all cylinders and last year’s re-org in rear view, we expect solid execution amid a strong demand environment to drive ongoing double digit growth.”

Even analysts that aren’t as high-profile as Zukin and Keirstead with their price targets are still decidedly bullish (and even more so now) on MSFT.

Atlantic Equities analyst James Corwell upped his target to $130 as well, explaining:

“Q418 was a very strong quarter for Microsoft with demand for both the company’s cloud offerings and its on-premises products (server products, Windows) exceeding consensus expectations. Strength in the latter is particularly encouraging….”

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch also says MSFT should reach $130 sometime in the foreseeable future.

Reality Check for MSFT Stock

Not every observer is on board with the idea that Microsoft’s red-hot growth streak will last.

Jefferies analyst John DiFucci, who holds a price target of only $75 on MSFT stock — and is the only analyst calling it a “Sell” — explained, “We continue to wonder if the unprecedented Windows outperformance relative to PC shipments is sustainable, while also questioning the ultimate margins of Azure.”

He added, “…we believe that AWS reported a similar operating margin compared to Azure’s GROSS MARGIN when AWS was the same scale as Azure is currently. We’re just saying…there’s risk.”

His points are well taken, too, even if exaggerated. The fact that he’s the only one with such dire doubts, however, is telling.

Bottom Line on MSFT Stock

Though the handful of price targets at $130 seem to be extreme on the surface, the reality is that Microsoft is a business-oriented platform with no real peers.

The lines between office productivity, digital assistants, professional networking via LinkedIn, and business-minded cloud computing are being blurred in a way that couldn’t have been foreseen just a few years ago, and couldn’t have been combined in this way by any other organization.

That’s the long way of saying that if you’ve been impressed by Microsoft thus far, know that it’s only scratched the surface. The world’s enterprises are only just now starting to realize the power of Microsoft’s one-stop solution.

In other words, those price targets of $130 aren’t crazy at all. MSFT shares have developed a strong habit of pushing well into the upper tiers of its price targets, only to have them raised higher before even reaching them.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/07/microsoft-stock-could-reach-130-this-year/.

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