We’ve Reached Peak Trump and Also Peak Twitter Stock

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Twitter stock - We’ve Reached Peak Trump and Also Peak Twitter Stock

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From an investment standpoint Twitter (NASDAQ:TWTR) is a mature company. Quarterly revenues have stabilized within the range of $700 million, which is what is expected when the company reports its third quarter at the end of the month. At that level it’s marginally profitable, expected to earn about six cents per share. Really, though, Twitter stock overpriced.

Besides selling at 91 times earnings, over nine times revenue, with a market cap of $21.3 billion, Twitter also is a changing company. Its efforts to become a video streamer through its Periscope unit are limited to press conferences and user-generated content by its inability to compete for rights fees.

More than half the 40 analysts still following Twitter stock give it the yawning rating of “hold,” yet everyone stillwants to talk about Twitter.

Twitter has become a political punching bag, litmus test, and battlefield.

Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Tweet him at @danablankenhorn, connect with him on Mastodon or subscribe to his Substack.

Limiting Speech Hurts Twitter Stock

Twitter is finding that free speech is complicated, that imposing order on liberty is expensive, requiring it take on the trappings of a government.

A new policy banning “dehumanizing speech,”  based on the work of Susan Benesch’s Dangerous Speech project, is supposed to tone down the rhetoric. Existing rules are being tightened and enforced in the run-up to the midterm elections in the U.S. Fake accounts run by bots and trolls are being sought and eliminated.

But it’s not working. Instead of just acting in the run-up to elections, bots and trolls are going after any controversy.

The best way for users to protect themselves is to block speakers they disagree with, isolating their feeds to only those they do agree with. That’s not helpful to political debate.

At a time when the President of the United States is a notorious Twitter troll, people who copy his tone have their own Twitter accounts suspended. One writer has suggested shutting down Twitter and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) for six weeks before any election but on this planet there’s always an election coming up somewhere.

Financial results from Europe look dire and privacy rules mean anyone from outside trying to understand the controversy faces forms and blocks.

Twitter’s Financial Response

Twitter is a failure as a public square, so it’s focusing on making money.

Twitter is encouraging publishers to do in-stream ads on their Twitter posts, making videos useless for casual users. It’s trying audio broadcasting, where the rights fees are lower.

From a financial standpoint these are minor tweaks. What Twitter faces is growing regulation, growing self-regulation, and growing costs, at a time when its total audience is not growing. In its second quarter report Twitter reported 335 million people checked in at least once a month, almost the same number as in the first quarter, with almost 80% of them from outside the U.S.

Also in that report, Twitter painted the picture of a rapidly-growing internet broadcaster and reported a third quarter of profitability. The company said revenues are growing 24% year over year. But stock-based compensation of $300-350 million still represents over 10% of revenue and capital spending could hit $500 million.

The Bottom Line on Twitter Stock

Twitter wants to an advertising medium, a broadcaster and a friend to ad agencies. Instead, it’s spending hundreds of millions of dollars to tamp down the open debate which attracted people to the site in the first place.

It may or may not be true that we have reached peak Trump. We have very likely reached peak Twitter. Twitter stock likely will fall as we past the peak.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of a new mystery thriller, The Reluctant Detective Finds Her Family, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned no shares in companies mentioned in this article.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/peak-trump-peak-twitter-stock/.

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