Why $900 Is the Right Price Target for Alphabet Stock

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GOOG stock - Why $900 Is the Right Price Target for Alphabet Stock

Source: Brionv via Wikimedia (Modified)

Continued relative weakness in Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) doesn’t bode well for today’s bullish investors in GOOG stock. But for traders willing to carry short positions, opportunity is knocking in front of a potentially much larger corrective move.

Let me explain.

One analyst kinda, sorta stepped up to the plate today in Alphabet stock. A call out of Wedbush slapped GOOGL shares with an upside price target of $1,350 citing “a compelling valuation and an unrivaled collection of high-profile and omnipresent core products and platforms.” Still, the coverage noted Alphabet stock’s fortunes weren’t as attractive long term as FANG peers Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) or Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). But even in the short term, Thursday’s investors weren’t having any part of it as GOOG finished down by nearly 2.50% on the session.

Blame it on what you will. And if you don’t, they i.e., the financial media certainly will. From weak earnings, Saudi-based geopolitical theater, to a hawkish Fed, excuses and a sudden case of weak-in-the-knees syndrome overtook U.S. markets Thursday. Within it was index bellwether GOOG stock.

In my estimation though, the day-to-day headline knee jerks by Wall Street are secondary to bearish information already built into the price chart of Alphabet shares.

GOOG Stock Daily Chart

GOOG Stock Daily Chart
Source: Charts by TradingView

Don’t get me wrong, I like Alphabet as much as the next guy. In fact, I’m probably even more of fan than most. But right now being able to separate services we love from making GOOG stock a long investment is smart business.

Recently, I discussed Alphabet stock’s bearish situation via Class A GOOGL shares and positioning with what I called a “bear-to-bull” options strategy. Since then, conditions have only grown worse for bulls and stronger for the bear case.

Our thesis in GOOG stock rested on a lower high pattern confirmed by a technical failure at the 50-day simple moving average. The combination quickly pushed shares aggressively lower on heavy and above-average volume below its prior high set in early 2018.

Subsequently, shares have continued to deteriorate technically. First, GOOG stock dropped into a testing position of the 200-day simple moving average, but quickly failed to hold the key longer-term trend-line as bullish support.

More recently, the past several sessions have been spent developing a bearish flag pattern with the moving average acting as resistance. And now Thursday’s higher and above-average volume drop confirms GOOG stock is setting up for a bearish continuation trade.

GOOG Stock Weekly Chart

GOOG Stock Weekly Chart
Source: Charts by TradingView

Despite our expressed bearish point of view thus far, shorting GOOG stock today may be slightly premature. As the bigger picture of the weekly chart shows, the daily bear flag in Alphabet shares is stationed off a loose longer-term uptrend line.

At this point in time, I see waiting a couple percent as the smarter approach. In doing so, traders shorting Alphabet shares will have confirmation of the bear flag breaking trend-line support. The required patience may seem like a lot to ask, but with an initial downside price target of $973 – $1000 in GOOG stock and quite possibly the $900 area, it’s not.

Should this key support line fail, GOOG has a substantial air pocket with no discernible technical support until a challenge of the 2018 low, a psychologically important whole number and 38% retracement level dating back to 2015’s low, just prior to GOOG stock forging its uptrend. Yet our thoughts are that conditions could get even worse for Alphabet stock bulls.

The bottom line for Alphabet stock is that with a few tests of this price area already in place, a second target from $880 – $900 looks approachable. This potential support zone holds yet another whole number, an even beefier 50% Fibonacci retracement as well as a very healthy 30% correction. And while corrective moves of that magnitude may seem like folklore in this stage of a historic bull market, that’s just the point.

Disclosure: Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler’s management do not currently own positions in any securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. . For additional options-based strategies and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.

The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional market insights and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/why-900-is-the-right-price-target-for-alphabet-stock/.

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