Amazon’s Earnings Report Is Not a Reason to Sell AMZN Stock

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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported earnings last night and traders are selling Amazon stock on the headline. The knee-jerk reaction in after-hours action had investors buying it up 3% on top of the day when it had already rallied 2.9%. The rally didn’t last as Amazon stock flipped red, diving down 5%. Overall, I consider it a washout range for the day: up 6%, down 5%.

This is not to say that management delivered a bad quarter. In fact, they grew their sales 20% over last year. Although this is slower than past reports, it still is impressive for a company that is close to $1 trillion in market cap.

My point today will be that anytime is a good time to go long AMZN, even on red days like this. If your horizon is longer than a few days, then in the long term if equity markets are higher, AMZN stock is leading the pack up.

There wasn’t much bad news in the performance metrics. Amazon Web Services (AWS) was up 46%, contributing $7.4 billion in sales. This is impressive, especially when you consider that it comes from an already dominant position. Furthermore, they reported 95% growth in advertising which is their newest hot area. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) should worry — the beast is coming.

So from a “report card” perspective, Jeff Bezos and his team delivered another strong quarter.

Why Are Amazon Stock Owners Disappointed?

So where did the disappointment come from? Guidance. AMZN lowered their sales forecast. They now see $56 to $60 billion of net first-quarter sales down from the expectations of $60.99.

But this is not a systemic problem from faulty execution. India decided to enforce a new law that will severely impact e-commerce there. AMZN and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) are the two biggest U.S.-based victims of this law. So there will be an adjustment period until they figure things out. And that explains their caution in lowering Wall Street’s expectation in the coming quarters.

Management is right to temper trader exuberance. This is a stock that has been running 100 miles an hour for over a decade. More to the point, it is up over 30% Since Christmas from low to high. Buyers need a rest and that will end up being another opportunity to go long AMZN stock.

This is the mother of all momentum stocks. It will rarely give us a perfect entry point. On the way up it moves so fast that it would scare most investors into staying out. Now, as it is falling, most traders will avoid AMZN stock until they digest this Indian law news and its real impact on sales.

AMZN was not built on Indian income. This is merely one of its opportunity areas. So to think that one region is going to cripple this beast of a company is naive. By looking at a long-term monthly chart, you can clearly see that waiting a few days out before buying AMZN stock is not crucial. Over time, it will be higher.

If the stock markets rally, then Amazon stock will be leading the charge. So this dip on the headline is not alarming.

If you own the stock, this is not a reason to sell it. If I am thinking of buying it, this headline should not sway me from taking a starter position. Can I wait out a few more ticks to be cautious? Sure. Like I already said, a few ticks up or down are not going to matter in the long run. AMZN is a beast of a stock and the company still has so much going for it.

Consider the potential income that will come to AMZN from the licensing of Alexa technologies. I bet that every appliance in our daily lives will have a voice command option. AMZN has the one that is ready for deployment. This would be income that will flow big to the bottom line. There is not much incremental cost in licensing the tech. Usually, most costs fall on the licensee’s shoulders.

Bottom Line on AMZN Stock

This dip could get a little bigger because Amazon stock just came out of a 36% correction from the September highs to the December lows. So the memories of the lost market cap are still fresh in investors’ minds.

But it is important to remember that the reason for the fall was due to extremely sour sentiment on Wall Street system-wide. Tariff wars and a combatant Federal Reserve are extraneous factors that caused investors to sell everything. AMZN stock being the mo-mo stock that it is sold faster than most.

This is a company that knows how to figure things out and without fanfare. Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) set the trend years ago for what we now call “the cloud.” AMZN proliferated it and now own it. AWS is the Goliath and even companies as big as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) are trying to catch up.

Since everything now either runs on the cloud or is slated for migration to it, there will be enough business for most of the major competitors to thrive for years to come. This tizzy too shall pass.

Click here for a bonus video that I recently shared discussing Square (SQ). It can help looking at this one here too. Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him as @racernic on Twitter and Stocktwits.

Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/02/amazons-earnings-report-is-not-a-reason-to-sell-amzn-stock-nimg/.

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