4 Reasons To Be Bullish on the New Privacy-Minded Facebook

The entire Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) business model is knowing its users better than its users know themselves, and packaging that detailed information up for advertisers. In fact, Facebook stock is up more than 350% since its 2012 IPO because the business model works so well. If it’s not broken, why fix it?

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I’m going to join the minority camp here, however, and say the proposed privacy-minded improvements CEO Mark Zuckerberg has planned for Facebook are not only not problematic, but could bear even more fruit than the current model does.

You read that right. Though most are worried about the impact of such a shift, I’m not.

A 180 Degree Turnaround

On the off chance you’re reading this and don’t already know, on Wednesday, Zuckerberg posted a lengthy letter describing what he sees for his social networking platform in the foreseeable future. The gist is, users can expect to see a privacy-focused Facebook within the next few years, complete with encrypted messages, disappearing posts a la Snap (NYSE:SNAP), and secure storage of users’ photos and files.

It’s a complete, 180-degree turnaround for an organization that has spent the last several years building the exact opposite apparatus. And, that’s spooked more than a few owners of FB stock.

It’s also worried analysts.

Daniel Goldstein, president of digital marketing agency Page 1 Solutions, is one of those concerned professional observers. He opined:

“The reason they can capture so many ad dollars, the reason it has been increasing, is because it has so much good data on consumers — where they live, who they are, race, marital status, income level. It knows a lot about you… How is it going to continue to make money?”

Goldstein’s words echo those of others.

What if, however, the doubters aren’t seeing the bigger picture?

Not a Reason to Worry

Don’t misunderstand. In most instances where Facebook had to make a tough choice between doing what’s best for Facebook stock owners or what’s best for Facebook users, it’s acted in favor of shareholders at the expense of user privacy.

The internet is always a work in progress though, as are social media platforms, as are the mindsets that drive people to them. And I’ve got a feeling a new privacy-friendly Facebook is actually the better business-building idea than letting Facebook continue to fester as-is.

Four driving forces lead me to this thesis.

1.It’s the lack of privacy holding some people back

I have to question any stats I hear on the matter, as consumers don’t always do what they say they’re going to do. But, broadly speaking, it’s not a stretch to suggest that some users have stopped using Facebook, while others only use it sparingly, specifically because there’s very little privacy protection.

2. It may open up new revenue opportunities for FB

Atlantic Equities financial analyst James Cordwell has his concerns about the shakeup too, but he notes, “if they can pull off this WeChat-esque strategy it could open up material revenue streams beyond just advertising, something that investors have been craving for quite some time.” One of those opportunities may well be subscription-based access to the privacy options.

3. Even advertisers are pushing back against the current model

Though not (yet) the majority, even some advertisers that have used Facebook’s platform in the past are becoming wary of doing business with Facebook.

Software company Basecamp is one of those defectors. Basecamp David Heinemeier recently explained in an interview,”Facebook has a frankly despicable business model that’s predicated on violating people’s privacy and running an ad monopoly,” but he’s not alone. The new model may actually make Facebook an even more compelling ad venue.

4. People will still willingly divulge information about themselves

Finally, though the idea certainly doesn’t apply to everyone all the time, if we’re being honest with ourselves, a wide swath of Facebook users do use the platform to publicly share information about themselves. It’s vanity. With just a few simple key strokes, an amateur has become a publisher or a commentator, or someone has shared a new life event with the world.

That still provides Facebook with a treasure trove of data for advertisers.

Bottom Line for Facebook Stock

Again, don’t misread the message. Any shift in a business strategy presents a risk, and this one could prove amazingly disruptive at a time when rivals like Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and even Snapchat are starting to gain traction.

The bigger risk here, however, is Facebook not adapting to the changing social networking landscape. Current and prospective owners of Facebook stock don’t see it that way because investors are largely psychologically wired to resist change and remain in a familiar, comfortable setting… even if that setting is the wrong one.

Remember what happened when Kodak didn’t evolve? Remember what happened when Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) did, turning its focus on streaming and away from mail-based DVD rentals?

Privacy is quickly becoming the new norm in social media. Facebook is actually leading and shaping that change, even if only because it has to.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can learn more about James at his site, jamesbrumley.com, or follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/03/4-reasons-to-be-bullish-on-the-new-privacy-minded-facebook/.

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