Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY), like other cannabis equities, continues to suffer from the effects of the bursting stock bubble. Tilray stock traded as high as $300 per share during the run-up in marijuana stocks, which preceded Canadian legalization in 2018. Since then, it has lost more than 92% of its value. This includes a nearly 35% drop in less than a week following its August earnings report.
To be sure, declines have hammered marijuana stocks across the board. Also, once the dust settles, the company holds key assets and partnerships that could eventually take TLRY stock higher.
However, Tilray stock needs both changing sentiment and a more discernible path to stability before it can stem its decline.
Sector Selloff Hits TLRY Stock
TLRY trades at just over $22 per share. Despite this massive drop, TLRY stock still appears overvalued. Currently, it trades at about 24.3 times sales.
In fairness, cannabis stocks have dropped across the board. Both Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) and Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) trade near 52-week lows. Moreover, companies such as Aphria (NYSE:APHA), which just beat earnings by 10 cents CAD per share, have also struggled. Many blame both changing sentiment against marijuana stocks as well as an oversupply of dried cannabis.
In short, stocks that could do no wrong 18 months ago can now do no right. This bodes poorly for Tilray stock. InvestorPlace’s Mark Hake even floated the possibility that TLRY could go bankrupt. Investors cannot write off that possibility as its reserves dwindle.
TLRY holds about $180 million in cash. Since it lost $35 million in the last quarter, it can only maintain its current pace for so long. Moreover, Tilray cannot assume further debt will be an option. As of the previous quarterly report, the company held $430 million in long-term debt and $360 million in total equity. Hence, the financials indicate that the company may have to dilute its already beleaguered stock further when it comes time to seek more funding.
TLRY Could Recover — Eventually
Despite a bleak outlook and a lack of profits, investors still have reasons to keep watching Tilray stock. Much like the positive sentiment surrounding marijuana stocks did not last, investors should not assume the negative outlook will remain forever. When attitudes change, Wall Street may again pay attention to Tilray’s attributes. Analysts forecast a 313.9% increase in revenue for this year. They also believe revenues will rise an additional 85.5% in fiscal 2020.
Moreover, its partnerships and assets could eventually help TLRY. The company has partnered with a subsidiary of Novartis (NYSE:NVS) to distribute and sell branded medical cannabis products. It also entered into a joint venture with Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) to research THC and CBD-infused beverages. Tilray also owns Manitoba Harvest, the world’s largest hemp food manufacturer.
This bodes well for continuing revenue growth. However, getting to the point where rising revenues can finally yield profits will probably lead to actions that place more strain on both the balance sheet and TLRY. Until the company can get to a place where it stops diluting Tilray stock, investors have little reason to buy.
My Final Thoughts on Tilray Stock
Tilray stock will struggle to move higher without improving its financials and without a more positive outlook from Wall Street on the cannabis sector. The bubble in TLRY continues to pop. The stock still appears pricey despite trading more than 90% below its all-time high. Sentiment has turned against marijuana stocks as losses continue and the industry contends with a glut in dried cannabis.
Despite these obstacles, an eventual bullish scenario could develop for Tilray stock. It has built partnerships with established players in other industries. This could bode well for the Nanaimo, British Columbia-based firm as medicinal marijuana and cannabis-infused beverages find a market.
However, for now, TLRY stock faces challenges as losses mount and liquid assets dwindle. Options for more funding will probably strain both the balance sheet and Tilray stock itself. For this reason, investors should probably brace for further near-term declines.
As of this writing, Will Healy did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks. You can follow Will on Twitter at @HealyWriting.