NVDA Stock’s Meteoric Rise: How to Protect Your Gains Before the Bubble Bursts


  • Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2,360% over the past five years. A correction in NVDA stock is 100% certain.
  • ETFs are a safer play for Nvidia. 
  • Call-and-put options can also play a defensive role in your NVDA ownership.
NVDA stock - NVDA Stock’s Meteoric Rise: How to Protect Your Gains Before the Bubble Bursts

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Cathie Wood worries about Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) meteoric rise. The portfolio manager wrote about NVDA stock in The Journey From Monetary Shock To An Innovation-Led Economic Boom, a commentary on what’s happening in the markets. This will be huge for NVDA stock.

She likened Nvidia to Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) and its 51% correction over four months in 1994 after appreciating 3,100% in the 3.5 years leading up to its quick slide starting in March 1994. 

With NVDA stock up 92% in a little more than three months, 283% over the past year, and 2,360% over the past five years, a correction in its share price is all but guaranteed. Wood’s words remind investors that now might not be the time to give in to your FOMO. 

However, if you’re into owning Nvidia for the long haul, there are ways you can have your cake and eat it, too. 

Here are three ways to do so. 

Buy an ETF Like IVW

The easiest way to reduce the risk of overloading on NVDA stock is to buy an ETF like the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:IVW), a collection of 225 growth stocks from the S&P 500

Nvidia is the third-largest holding, weighted at 9.33%. This gives you a decent position in the AI chip company without betting the farm. It also gives you a piece of 231 other growth companies from the index. 

How’s it performed? It’s up 102% over the past five years, 14 percentage points better than the index and 37 percentage points better than the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEARCA:IVE). 

While it’s important to play defense some of the time, IVW allows you to bet on growth, go on offense, without overexposing yourself to the inevitable correction of NVDA stock.  

The best part? It costs investors just $18 per $10,000 invested.  

Buy the Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF

If you’re super-bullish about NVDA stock, you won’t like this idea because it limits the company’s weight in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP) to approximately 0.20% at each of the four quarterly rebalances. It charges 0.20%, or $20 per $10,000 invested.  

I’ve always liked equal-weight ETFs because they’re like a horse race run four times every year. The best-performing stocks will finish each quarter with the highest weighting. 

In the latest quarter, with 14 days left until rebalancing—the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index rebalances on the third Friday in March, June, September, and December—Nvidia is the top holding with a weighting of 0.34%, four basis points higher than Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).     

Now, before getting into the third way to protect against Nvidia’s inevitable correction, if you’re less than thrilled with the idea of investing in an ETF that gives you less than 1% weight in Nvidia, you could consider buying an out-of-the-money call option such as the April 19 $1,750 strike, which had an ask price of $1.27 as I write this.

For an initial down payment of $127 (7.3%), you’ve gained an opportunity to buy 100 Nvidia shares in April. Of course, it’s unlikely to appreciate this much over 42 days. However, it may increase by $77 (8.3% based on a $926.69 closing price), enabling you to double your money by selling the option before April 19’s expiration.  

Buy a Nvidia Put  

The last play to lessen the hit of the inevitable correction is to buy an NVDA protective put. For example, if you own 100 shares of Nvidia—not a cheap investment at nearly $93,000—you buy one contract at the appropriate strike price, and the money you make on that put from a correction offsets some of your unrealized losses from a correction.  

What to buy?

You want something with a reasonable number of days left to expire and isn’t too expensive. 

Based on Nvidia’s unusual options activity for March 7, I might look at the May 17 $675 put with an ask price of $6.55, or $655 per contract. This ensures that if the shares fall below $675, you can sell 100 shares at that price, limiting the loss on your existing 100 shares you own. 

Should the share price not fall to $675, you wouldn’t exercise your right to sell, losing your $655. That’s a reasonable price to pay for limiting your losses while maintaining ownership of what is arguably one of America’s best companies. 

In the long term, NVDA stock remains a buy. 

On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

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