Although Facebook Stock Looks Good, There’s not a Ton of Upside Left

Facebook stock - Although Facebook Stock Looks Good, There’s not a Ton of Upside Left

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Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) hasn’t had its best six-month start this year, but it isn’t really holding back Facebook stock.

Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s trip to Capitol Hill isn’t exactly an accolade to hang on the wall either.

Despite the rocky start and Congressional testimony though, Facebook stock has been trading pretty well since its second-quarter lows.

Shares made new all-time highs last week, as FANG Facebook, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) all powered higher.

In fact, all four of these mega-stocks hit new highs as well.

That doesn’t exactly scream recession now does it?

It doesn’t, but does that make Facebook stock a buy? Investors eyeing the FANG group may be surprised to know that Facebook trades with a relatively reasonable valuation.

Let’s have a look at what we’re dealing with.

Valuing Facebook Stock

Despite testifying in front of Congress and through the worries of fake news and users leaving the Facebook platform in a huff, shares have a reasonable valuation. Further, analysts still predict plenty of growth.

Expectations call for earnings of $7.72 per share for fiscal 2018, up massively from last year’s $5.39. They expect further growth in 2019, calling for earnings to expand another 20% to $9.24 per share.

On the revenue front, analysts expect a whopping 40% boost this year to $56.6 billion and another 27% bump in 2019 to almost $72 billion.

Do you realize how big these numbers are? A $575 billion company growing sales 40% this year? Aside from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), this type of growth isn’t seen from companies of this size.

While this leaves Facebook trading at more than 10 times this year’s sales, consider its immense profitability.

Sporting laughably good gross margins of 86% and profit margins of 40%, an immense amount of Facebook’s top-line results fall to the bottom line.

In that sense, shares trade at just 25 times this year’s earnings, and that’s with the stock near record highs!

The valuation is perhaps the biggest reason we said to buy the stock when it was near $150.

It’s also worth mentioning that current estimates may be conservative. Facebook hasn’t missed an earnings estimate in four years and has missed revenue estimates just once in that span, (by $20 million in Q1 2015).

With growth drivers like Instagram, and by cutting programs that weren’t working out like Project Aquila, Facebook stands to benefit even more going forward.

For those that want to own FANG, but can’t handle the valuations of NFLX and AMZN, GOOGL and FB stock are attractive alternatives.

Trading Facebook Stock

chart of FB stock
Click to Enlarge
Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

There’s a lot going on with Facebook stock chart, so let’s start with some of the shorter term developments. These are highlighted in blue and show that a short-term trend-line has been supporting Facebook from $170.

Additionally, shares were able to push through the $190 to $195 area. This former resistance level has been acting as support and bulls hope it stays that way.

If it doesn’t though? There will likely be support in the $180 to $185 area, where the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages currently rest. There’s also level support in this area too.

Not that I expect to see Facebook back near $155, but that level too should act as support.

As for resistance, there was a long-term trend-line of support that was in play until February. That level then turned into resistance, again showing itself earlier this month when FB made its highs. Luckily for bulls, this resistance level is trending higher, but the really encouraging move would be to see FB stock breakout over this level.

Now near its highs with a $575 billion market cap and a tarnished look not too far behind it, that may be asking for a bit too much though.

So should we buy? Facebook is a great company, and after liking it near $150, we have to be happy with this move. Buying now though seems tough given its run.

Despite missing out on more upside, I’d be more apt to wait, even though it has a great growth and a reasonable valuation. Facebook stock is a hold in my mind.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/06/facebook-stock-looks-good/.

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