The entire semiconductor sector is on a roll. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector (NASDAQ:SOX) started March at 985 and has already flown above the 1,000 level thanks to product launches from Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and a solid quarterly earnings report from Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU).
Only Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) stands out as the underperformer in this market. The takeover of Mobileye NV (NYSE:MBLY) for $15 billion will add risks for shareholders, as integrating such a big company will be fraught with uncertainties.
Investors should stick with what they know best: Advanced Micro Devices’ CPU refresh, with the Ryzen 7 and the Ryzen 5 next, holds big promise for AMD stock. And as much as that promise seems priced in … it’s not.
Ryzen 5 Targets the Mainstream Market
The Ryzen 7 CPU, rebuilt from the bottom up, will compete with some of Intel’s high-end chips, including the i7 processor. AMD is targeting enthusiasts here, so the chip is still at the high end. Still, at least one outlet cut the price of Ryzen to 1700X to $370. As the price falls, AMD should be able to gobble up more share.
Ryzen 5 targets a different market than the 7, however.
Retailers are apparently releasing the chip weeks ahead of schedule, and at a price range that won’t cramp the ol’ wallet. On April 11, AMD will officially announce four Ryzen 5 chips: the 1400, 1500x, 1600 and 1600X.
The chips will range from 4-cores to 6-cores and will cost just $169 to $249. At that price point, Intel’s budget i3 chip and Pentium chips will look laughably expensive. Ryzen 5 offers between 8 and 12 threads, which is up to three times more than that offered on the G-series Pentium processors.
The high-end Ryzen 5 chips will compete with Intel’s i5 7600K, since the former costs just $10 more.
AMD Stock: Growth, But With Risks
Ryzen 7 must win PC enthusiasts now. The more gamers that use AMD chips, the faster that game developers will optimize the software to work efficiently on Ryzen.
Meanwhile, Ryzen 5 must win the OEM and PC manufacturing orders. Big companies like Dell, HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) and Lenovo could give shelf space to AMD-based computers and laptops. If that happens, AMD will be chewing market share from Intel on a couple of fronts.
Also, Polaris-based graphics cards can help AMD win back some market share from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).
The combination of low price and high performance mean those two events are likely.
However, those who believe in AMD stock are already sitting on a massive four-fold return in the past year. Now, shares traded at more than 47 times forward earnings projections.
Meanwhile, as investors are finding out Monday, any market downswings will likely be used as opportunities to take profits in Advanced Micro Devices. And there are a lot of investors sitting on significant profits.
If the CPU refresh is as successful as its GPU refresh, though, the stock has room to run, and CEO Lisa Su will look like a star.
A Note on Intel
AMD clearly is shaking up the CPU market with high-performance chips at a good price. But Intel as an investment may make more sense for certain investors.
Income investors get a nearly 3% dividend holding INTC, bolstered by an increase to the dividend on March 23, to 27.25 cents per share — a 4.8% hike. Moreover, its value metrics are much more attractive than AMD’s.
Of course, no one expects Intel to triple its earnings, either.
As of this writing, Chris Lau was long AMD.
