Why Unilever plc (ADR) (UL) Stock Would Shine Again With a New CEO

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Things at Unilever plc (ADR) (NYSE:UL, NYSE:UN) have been pretty lousy lately — so lousy that CEO Paul Polman was pressured into ordering a strategic review on the company due to finish this month. With any luck, the Unilever board will recommend his termination. That raises this question: does UL stock become a value proposition with Polman gone?

Why Unilever plc (ADR) (UL) Stock Would Shine Again With a New CEO

I think it does.

Just to quickly recap the ongoing disaster with Unilever: Sales growth is weak and the result of price increases more than unit sales; Polman picked a foolish fight with Tesco, the U.K.’s massive retailer; finally settled a long-standing mercury poisoning claim in India without taking responsibility; abused workers in Kenya; and even sued a startup because its eggless mayo was more successful that what Unilever was selling.

This was so ridiculous — Unilever actually sued because the competitor’s mayo was eggless and therefore could not be classified as mayo. You can’t make this up.

And of course, Polman nixed a face-saving offer from Kraft Heinz Co (NASDAQ:KHC) to buy all UN stock, at a 15% premium, and merge the companies. It was an incredibly stupid move at a time when snack and food companies need to merge amid falling sales.

The question is what a turnaround could look like at Unilever, in the right hands. First, we have to ask if removing the CEO specifically for a turnaround has any precedent. It sure does.

How Unilever Could Benefit From a New CEO

Nestle SA (ADR) (OTCMKTS:NSRGY) executed a bold move, and one that I think is always a good idea when a company needs a turnaround, which is to hire someone from outside. Ulf Mark Schneider took over on Jan. 1, coming from a healthcare provider CEO job that he’d held for 13 years.

The goal is based on what all turnarounds need: vision. Schneider is making complete strategic changes, getting away from snack foods (which are getting hammered amid obesity statistics), and into more nutritional and healthy foods. He just started so it is too early to tell, but its the closest snack-food driven conglomerate analogy to Unilever. Schneider has a lot to work with, and it seems wise to sell off its 23% stake in L’Oreal, which might be worth $20 billion.

Another food-related giant that was struggling for the first time in its history was McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD). As same-store and overall sales were falling amid the rise of healthier fast-casual chains, you could just tell management was afraid of messing with decades of success, despite evidence that things had to change. They tried halfheartedly to change the menu, but it was so obvious that they felt like the core offerings had to remain exactly the same.

MCD plucked its chief brand officer and made him CEO — a relatively young guy at age 49 — and he transformed the menu. He saw that competitors like Carl’s Jr. and Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) remained flexible with their offerings, and that Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) successfully added to and altered its own food menu. MCD is now back on track.

Back on the conglomerate track, Siemens AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:SIEGY) replaced its CEO internally, using former CFO and CEO of the company’s American subsidiary, Joe Kaeser. He increased net income from $4.06 billion in FY13 when he came on board to $5.26 billion in FY16, with a strong forecast for this year as well. He was able to execute on a specific goal, and the stock has responded in kind.

Bottom Line on UL Stock

Let’s stick with this idea, because there are rumors of a rift between Polman and UN CFO, Graeme Pitkethly.  He’d be an excellent choice to serve as CEO for Unilever. He has been with the company for 15 years. He obviously knows the issues from a financial standpoint.

Yet more than that, he served as the CFO for the UN Indonesian subsidiary, and the SVP of Finance for Global Markets. So he’s hip to the vagaries of overseas markets. Yet he has had another leadership position, that of EVP and Chairman of the U.K. and Ireland divisions.

I think there’s another aspect to Pitkethly that’s significant, in that he also served as head of M&A. For UL stock, mergers and acquisitions are probably going to have to be a part of any turnaround. It can’t grow its way out of the snack food problem. In fact, it should be buying up tempting start-ups like the one it got into the mayo fight with. A glance at ABC TV’s “Shark Tank” shows there’s tons of innovation going on in healthy food, which is probably why Nestlé got involved.

UN stock had $5.851 billion in net income in FY16, an increase of $138 million over the previous year, or just under 3%. Yet UL stock is valued at $138 billion, or almost 24x earnings. That’s a ridiculous price, and yet not so ridiculous for Kraft Heinz.

That says there is apparently a market for UN stock at this price, so one can only imagine that a new CEO would wring out additional value.

As of this writing, Lawrence Meyers did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/03/unilever-plc-adr-ul-stock-shine-new-ceo/.

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