Beleaguered retailer Sears Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:SHLD) has had a tough run over the past few years, but the 15% gain so far this year may have you questioning whether SHLD stock is actually gaining momentum.

If you somehow missed the intensely negative coverage of Sears  over the past month, let me give you a brief summary — stay away. It’s is a failing business, and its rally has been based purely on speculation and enthusiasm, rather than evidence that the business is recuperating.

SHLD stock continues to be mired in volatility, declining more than 7% over the past week before bouncing back with a 6% run on Tuesday.

Ignore the day-to-day back-and-forth of the stock. See the forest through the trees and understand that the ultimate direction is down.

Lampert Lifeline

Sears is in real financial trouble, and has been for years. One of the only reasons that SHLD has lasted this long is the firm’s generous CEO Eddie Lampert.

Lampert has become a major lifeline for the company and, along with his hedge fund, Lampert owns almost 50% of the firm’s secured debt. He also recently upped his stake in SHLD stock, buying thousands of shares at the beginning of Sears’ rally. He and Fairholme Fund’s Bruce Berkowitz own nearly 80% of Sears combined.

This fact should be unsettling to investors. Not only does it show that the business relies heavily on funding from one individual, but it also suggests that Lampert’s decision-making will likely be in his own interest, rather than the other 20% of regular shareholders.

And a turnaround isn’t necessarily in Lampert’s best interest.

Hemorrhaging Cash

Perhaps the most unsettling thing about taking a position in SHLD stock is the company’s utterly terrible financials. In its most recent business update, Sears warned that comparable store sales declined 10.8% in the first quarter and its EBITDA was expected to show a loss of somewhere between $190 million-$230 million.

That also doesn’t even consider the company’s mountains of debt and its inability to turn retail operations around.

Sears’ financials paint a very bleak picture of the future, and the company’s management team has even admitted that Sears may not be able to continue operating much longer.

The Turnaround Is Over

What could Sears do?

Management has cut costs aggressively, closing store after store in an effort to reduce spending. Sears has also implemented several tactics to draw in customers and up its online presence. However, none of those things have shown signs of material success.

SHLD is caught in a riptide of e-commerce that’s upending the brick-and-mortar industry, mostly led by Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN). While some companies are making admirable strides to become more online-focused and better compete with internet-only retailers, Sears has been lacking.

Several of Sears’ stronger, better-funded peers like Macy’s Inc (NYSE:M) and Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE:KSS) are still having a hard time combating Amazon’s increasing hold on their customers.

Sears — which has long been without a cogent retail strategy — never really stood a chance.

The Bottom Line for SHLD Stock

Sears will hit rock-bottom — it’s merely a matter of when. Lampert is merely propping the stock up, and investors who believe otherwise are in for a big disappointment.

Traders can still make money off SHLD stock — it’s certainly volatile enough. But buy-and-holders are much better off targeting retail stocks that aren’t quite in Amazon’s crosshairs, such asHome Depot (NYSE:HD).

As of this writing, Laura Hoy did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.