Despite Likely Near-Term Weakness, Tesla Inc Stock Is a Long-Term Winner

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TSLA stock - Despite Likely Near-Term Weakness, Tesla Inc Stock Is a Long-Term Winner

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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is coming off a pretty sizable rally. Driven in part by broad tax reform optimism and in part by Tesla-specific tailwinds, TSLA stock rallied from $300 to over $340 in a matter of days.

These tailwinds included the EV tax credit surviving the legislative chopping block, Tesla’s new semitrucks receiving several preorders from big companies, and CEO Elon Musk confirming that the company is working on its own AI hardware.

But that rally appears to be over now. While the market and specifically tech stocks have continued to rally over the past several days, Tesla stock has dropped. It’s not much a drop (about 2% over the past five days), but it’s enough to illustrate that this current rally is over.

Does that mean it’s time to sell TSLA stock?

If you’re a trader, maybe. TSLA stock looks like it will be the victim of some choppy trade in the near future.

But if you’re an investor oriented toward long-term gains, then no. Given its leadership position in arguably the biggest secular growth market over the next 5-10 years, TSLA stock will head materially higher in a multiyear window.

Three Things to Know About TSLA Stock

When it comes to Tesla at this point in time, I think there are three things all investors must understand.

First, the long-term bear thesis is unnecessarily shortsighted.

Yes, TSLA is a money-losing operation that keeps pushing off the prospect of sustained profitability. But that is every hyper-growth company. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is no different. Same with Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX).

Losing money is just a natural feature of hyper-growth companies in their early stages. So long as gross margins are high (which they are at Tesla), robust revenue growth will drive huge operating expense leverage, and huge losses will turn into huge profits.

Also, yes, TSLA stock has a massive sales multiple that dwarfs the sales multiples at every other auto company. But Tesla also has a revenue growth rate which dwarfs the growth rates at every other auto company.

TSLA is looking at 70% sales growth over the next several years. Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is looking at essentially 1% sales growth over the next several years, while General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) is looking at sales declines over the next several years. Considering this huge divergence in growth, one should expect an equally huge divergence in valuation.

And lastly, yes, Model 3 ramp-up has been slow, but so were Model X and Model S ramp-ups. Everyone freaked out when the Model 3 had a sub-300 vehicle-delivery quarter recently, but both the Model X and Model S have had sub-300 vehicle-delivery quarters before.

Quarterly delivery numbers for the Model X and Model S now both exceed 10,000. The Model 3 will follow a similar trajectory.

So, all in all, the bear thesis seems unnecessarily shortsighted and ignores what makes Tesla such a special growth company for the next several years.

Second, it’s important to understand that although the long-term bear thesis is shortsighted, that doesn’t mean TSLA stock will grind higher in linear fashion. TSLA stock has historically been subject to big rallies, followed by long periods of consolidation, followed by another big rally.

It looks like we are entering a mini-period of consolidation following a mini-rally. The optimism which pushed TSLA stock from $300 to $340 is starting to fade. Preorders for Tesla EV trucks are expected at this price and are no longer driving the TSLA stock price higher. That tells me TSLA stock is likely range-bound in the near future.

Third, regardless of near-term noise, TSLA stock will head a lot higher in the long term.

Tesla is at the forefront of arguably the biggest secular growth opportunity over the next 5-10 years. Everything auto is going electric. Consumers, corporations and governments want to save money and reduce emissions. Electric cars and electric trucks allow for that.

This transition is only getting started. Governments across the world are setting reduced vehicle-emission targets. Same with corporations. And Tesla is at the center of all this.

Consequently, TSLA stock will head a lot higher in the long term.

Bottom Line on TSLA Stock

Expect near-term choppiness, but TSLA stock is a winner in a multiyear window given its leadership position in arguably the biggest secular growth market of our time.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TSLA. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/12/despite-likely-near-term-weakness-tesla-is-a-long-term-winner/.

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