Between the whiz-bang quarterly results that rival Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) posted last week and this week’s surprisingly encouraging numbers from department store chain Macy’s Inc (NYSE:M), one would have thought Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) was going to follow suit.

One would have been wrong, however. Lowe’s stock was down more than 7% early Wednesday following fourth-quarter numbers that somehow — despite lingering hurricane-repair spending — were far less than expected.

Yes, it bodes poorly for the company because, no, it probably wasn’t just a simple stroke of temporary bad luck. Even if the home improvement retailer was doing a better job with the things it can control, there’s a headwind blowing that it can do little to resist.

Lowe’s Earnings Recap

For the quarter ending in early February, Lowe’s turned $15.49 billion worth of revenue into per-share earnings of 74 cents.

The good news is, analysts were only calling for sales of $15.33 billion, and same-store sales growth of 4.1% was better than the anticipated growth of 3.1%. The bad news is, sales fell nearly 2% from the year-earlier top line of $15.78 billion, and the pros were modeling income of 87 cents per share of Lowe’s stock.

In its defense, the last quarter of 2016 was a 14-week period, while the last quarter of 2017 was only a 13-week stretch, meaning the retailer had one less quarter to drive sales in this time around. Still, Lowes’s fourth-quarter results (even factoring out the effects of the misaligned calendar) were in notable contrast to Home Depot’s success during the comparable quarter. The bigger rival saw revenue growth and same-store sales growth of 7.5%.

Lowe’s gross margins fell from 34.4% to 33.7%, missing estimates of 34.3% and suggesting the organization was forced to discount a bit more than it might like in order to drive the business it was able to generate. It should have been much easier, considering the post-hurricane repairs that are still underway.

Not Enough Certainty

While hardly a disaster, the fourth quarter was clearly not the quarter Lowe’s stock holders were expecting. The quarter may point to what shareholders should expect going forward though.

CEO Robert Niblock said in a statement from the company “As we enter 2018, we are working diligently to improve execution with a focus on conversion, gross margin, and inventory management.

Considering the rapidly evolving competitive landscape, we are also accelerating our strategic investments leveraging the benefits of tax reform. We continue to build the capabilities required to deliver simple and seamless experiences and strengthen our position as the omni-channel project authority.”

Lowe’s has been investing in itself for quite some time, however, to not enough avail. The retailer’s omni-channel engine was revving in earnest more than a year ago. For a short while, it looked like it might take off but that effort didn’t allow the company to keep up with Home Depot.

Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Brian Nagel has an explanation. He flatly says “Home Depot is a much better run company.” Though Nagel adds that the Q4 report may eventually become a positive event rather than a negative event, that’s a dubious honor.

The positive is simply that activist investor D.E. Shaw & Co — along with LOW shareholders — have finally become frustrated enough to force change for the better. It remains to be seen, however, if Shaw can implement improvements Lowe’s has been unable to implement itself.

In the meantime, the retailer will have to navigate a confusing market environment. New homes simply aren’t being built at the pace they were yesteryear, though home renovations are underway at an incredible clip. It’s a dynamic that favors Home Depot over Lowe’s, as Home Depot has more stores in lucrative areas where major renovations are likely to incur significant consumer spending.

Looking Ahead for Lowe’s Stock

For the year now underway, the company is looking for net sales growth of around 4%, and same-store sales growth of around 3.5%. That sets the stage for earnings of between $5.40 and $5.50 per share of Lowe’s stock. But, the projected decline of operating income — to the tune of 30 basis points — is a step in the wrong direction for a company that’s already got the scale Lowe’s has.

Wednesday’s selloff may make LOW an interesting buying opportunity, but the company itself has yet to make the case that it’s a better bet than Home Depot. Even if D.E. Shaw can drive some much-needed change, the fruits of that labor are months if not quarters away. Take a look at Home Depot instead, as too many home-improving consumers did late last year.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.