‘Fortnite’ Isn’t a Threat to Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc

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TTWO stock - ‘Fortnite’ Isn’t a Threat to Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc

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Truth be told, the recent selloff from Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) makes reasonably good sense. Not only was TTWO stock pressured lower by the broad market’s weakness, the rise of Fortnite — a shooter game recently made available for mobile devices — seemingly posed a threat to the small(ish) video game publisher.

All told, Take-Two stock is down nearly 25% from its early February peak and continues to toy with the idea of lowers lows.

But Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson made a great bullish point last week about the selloff in TTWO stock, and almost as if on cue, a reminder surfaced on Monday that underscores Olson’s optimism.

That reminder? Take-Two Interactive is the name behind the world’s most successful video game — ever. It may not have the most titles in its library, but the focus on quality (and marketability) over quantity is a formula that works well for this company.

Don’t Fix What’s Not Broken

If the idea seems vaguely familiar, there may be a reason. That is, as yours truly here pointed out in November, Take-Two would rather make fewer games that it knows will boost the bottom line than make a bunch of games that will likely have hit-and-miss results.

Case in point? Grand Theft Auto 5, which as MarketWatch’s Max Cherney pointed out on Monday has generated more revenue than any other game in history. All tallied, it’s driven about $6 billion worth of sales thus far, and the total keeps rising.

The most amazing part of the story? It was launched in 2013. Most five-year-old games are long forgotten. Just ask rivals like Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATVI) and Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA).

It’s a testament to how Take-Two’s chiefs think. While the controversial Grand Theft Auto franchise (and Grand Theft Auto V) are statistical outliers, the same basic formula has proven similarly successful for Take-Two Interactive in the past.

Its cowboy/western-themed shooter Red Dead is much like Grand Theft Auto in terms of game-play, and critics offer the same accolades for both games. That is, they’re visually stunning, and the ongoing release of new areas and characters to play along with new weapons and tools keeps the game fresh for years on end.

It’s also good for investors, as developing add-on content for existing games is easier than building a new — and unproven — game from scratch.

Forget Fortnite

As for Fortnite, the concern that it poses a risk to Take-Two Interactive is understandable. It too is a relatively graphic shooter in an arena-like setting. A contest can start with as many as 100 online players in an ever-confining area, and one by one they eliminate one another until just one player is left standing. Grand Theft Auto V is more story driven, but still offers multiplayer action.

There’s a key difference, though. That is, the people playing Fortnite aren’t the same people playing Grand Theft Auto.

Olson’s findings: Fortnite‘s average player is 13 to 14 years old, while the average age of Grand Theft Auto players is much older. The disparity largely represents each game’s rating.

Fortnite is a game rated safe for all teenagers by the Entertainment Software Rating Board, while Grand Theft Auto V has earned its “Mature, 17+” for a combination of in-game blood, gore, language, nudity and sexually suggestive scenarios.

It’s a line in the sand that many parents still prevent their kids from crossing. Throw in the fact that Fortnite is playable on mobile devices, and it’s not surprising teenagers love it.

Make no mistake, though. Grand Theft Auto V is the game many of those young teenagers are longing to play while they’re forced to be content with Fortnite. Few who’ve played Grand Theft Auto V are downgrading their experience to the tamer game.

That’s why Olson recommended buying TTWO stock on this dip, explaining, “We do expect a measurable impact on Activision’s near-term revenue due to overlapping titles (CoD, Destiny, Overwatch, etc.), but we expect very minimal impact on EA and Take-Two.” He added, “Additionally, there is a significant catalyst in October with Red Dead Redemption 2.”

There’s also the not-so-small reality that many players have invested a bunch of time and money into building their online persona within the Grand Theft Auto V game.

Bottom Line for TTWO Stock

While a battle between two similar games won’t make or break either game company, this isn’t just a battle between two games. The Fortnite/Grand Theft Auto face-off is a microcosm of a much bigger dynamic.

Take-Two Interactive Software has a small but powerful library of video games that players aren’t just loyal to, but games that continue to drive new revenue for the company. The aforementioned Red Dead is one of them, but also among them are the Bioshock franchise, its Mafia property, a whole slew of Sid Meier’s Civilization games and the Borderlands series, just to name a few.

It’s still a smaller library of outright hits compared to Electronic Arts and Activision, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

In other words, Piper Jaffray’s Michael Olson may have a good point about the recent pullback from TTWO stock being a buying opportunity.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/fortnite-isnt-a-threat-to-take-two/.

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