The trillion dollar club is starting to get crowded.
Okay, not that crowded, but it does look like the trillion dollar club is about to welcome its second member. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was first. Now, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is only a few billion dollars away from being second.
This party is just getting started. The trillion dollar club is about to be a party of two. But, over the next three or so years, the trillion dollar club could include four, five or even six trillion dollar stocks.
With that in mind, investors might be wondering, what four companies will be the next trillion dollar stocks after Apple and Amazon?
Let’s take a closer look.
Trillion Dollar Stocks In the Making: Alphabet (GOOG)
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After Amazon crosses into the trillion dollar range, the next stock most likely to hit a $1 trillion valuation is Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL).
For starter’s, Alphabet isn’t that far behind Amazon. Amazon’s market is just south of $1 trillion. Alphabet’s market cap is about $870 billion. So, this stock just needs to tag on an extra $130 billion over then next few quarters to become a trillion dollar stock.
Alphabet can easily do that. The stock isn’t that expensive. GOOG stock trades at just 26X forward earnings. Meanwhile, revenue growth is big (20%-plus), and promises to remain big in the near-term thanks to continued robust growth in the digital advertising market. Also, margins are finally starting to bounce back thanks to moderating traffic acquisition cost (TAC) growth.
If margins rebound and revenue growth stays above 20% (both of which are likely), then earnings growth could zoom to the 20-30% range. That would make GOOG stock’s 26X forward multiple look relatively small, and the market would likely re-rate the stock higher.
Moreover, as Waymo moves from dream to reality over the next few quarters, the market will likely start to price more autonomous driving growth into GOOG stock. As that happens, that will also move the multiple higher.
Thus, over the next several quarters, GOOG stock should benefit from both reinvigorated earnings growth and healthy multiple expansion. The combination of those two drivers should propel GOOG stock into trillion dollar territory rather soon.
Trillion Dollar Stocks In the Making: Microsoft (MSFT)
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The only other stock that is highly likely to join the trillion dollar club over the next twelve months or sooner is Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).
Much like GOOG, the drivers for MSFT stock to a $1 trillion valuation will be robust earnings growth and healthy multiple expansion. This is a stock also trading at just 26X forward earnings. Granted, revenue growth isn’t that big right now (+17% last quarter), but it has been accelerating higher over the past few quarters thanks to robust cloud growth.
If this revenue growth acceleration continues, then the multiple on MSFT stock should move higher.
Moreover, if this revenue growth acceleration continues, it will be because of growth in the cloud business. The cloud business, at scale, will have higher margins than Microsoft’s legacy business. Thus, more cloud revenue translates into bigger profits.
Bigger profits plus a higher multiple equals big stock price gains.
Thus, considering Microsoft only needs to add roughly $140 billion in market cap to get to $1 trillion, it looks exceedingly likely that Microsoft joins the trillion dollar club within the next twelve months.
Trillion Dollar Stocks In the Making: Facebook (FB)
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Beyond Alphabet and Microsoft, the field of potential trillion dollar stocks thins out mostly because everyone else still has a long ways to go. But, in that field of “everyone else,” the most likely to hit a trillion dollar valuation is Facebook (NASDAQ:FB).
Yes, I understand that this company and the stock are in hot water right now. Privacy issues are everywhere. So are regulation concerns. Plus, Facebook platform engagement is dropping. Margins are compressing. Revenue growth is slowing.
Not all is well in the Facebook kingdom.
But, in the big picture, these concerns are unnecessarily short-sighted. Privacy issues? No one really cares, as the user base still grew last quarter. Regulation concerns? We have yet to see any impact. Facebook platform engagement down? That is only because Instagram engagement is up, and Facebook owns Instagram. Margins compressing? Facebook is spending big to keep its ecosystem safe and secure, which is a necessary investment to sustain long-term growth. Revenue growth slowing? That is simply because Facebook is shifting its monetization focus from News Feed to Stories, and Stories monetization rates aren’t as high as News Feed monetization rates yet.
Over time, all these issues will resolve themselves, and the Facebook machine will keep rocking higher.
After all, there are only six social media and communication apps in the world with over 1 billion users. Facebook owns four of them. Thus, so long as ad dollars keep flowing into the digital channel, they will find their way into the Facebook ecosystem.
Facebook needs another $500 billion to get $1 trillion. So, the stock is still a long ways out from getting there. But, over time, Facebook will become a trillion dollar stock.
Trillion Dollar Stocks In the Making: Alibaba (BABA)
![Trillion Dollar Stocks In The Making: Alibaba (BABA)](https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif)
Much like Facebook, China e-commerce and cloud giant Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has a long ways to go to $1 trillion. The stock has also been under pressure recently amid rising trade war tensions between the U.S. and China.
But, make no mistake, Alibaba is headed for a trillion dollar valuation.
For all intents and purposes, Alibaba is the Chinese version of Amazon. It operates China’s biggest e-commerce business. It also has a huge cloud business. Alibaba is also growing its offline retail presence, and jumping into digital advertising, AI and other next-gen technologies that could super-charge growth in the long run.
Thus, Alibaba really is the China Amazon. But, Alibaba operates at much higher profit margins. Thus, this stock doesn’t need an insane triple-digit, Amazon-like multiple to get to a trillion dollar valuation. Instead, BABA has a market cap of $450 billion today with a forward earnings multiple of just 30X. Thus, a simple 60X forward multiple would get Alibaba to a near trillion dollar valuation just like that.
BABA stock doesn’t deserve a 60X forward multiple. But, it does deserve a bigger than 30X forward multiple considering revenue growth has consistently been running around 60%. Thus, over the next several quarters and years, Alibaba should benefit from both robust earnings growth and drastic multiple expansion.
Put those two together on a stock with a $450 billion market cap, and it isn’t hard to see Alibaba crossing the trillion dollar mark in the next few years.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB and BABA.