There’s no denying it. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) has been one of 2018’s smashing success stories. AMD stock is up 170% since the last trading day of last year, and is roughly three times the price it was trading at as of early April. Investors would be hard-pressed to find any other large cap name with such an impressive performance for the same timeframe.

What if, however, the bulk of that big gain wasn’t ultimately based on the merits of the company’s rekindling?

Even merely asking the question incites a backlash from fans and followers of Advanced Micro Devices stock, most of whom would be better off if such an idea wasn’t put on the table. But, reality is reality, even when it’s inconvenient.

A Real Turnaround, But…

To be fair, Advanced Micro Devices is twice the company it was two years ago… almost literally. Trailing twelve-month revenue of $6.4 billion nearly doubles up its TTM revenue figure of $3.8 billion as of early 2016. Back then the company was proverbially caught with its pants down by rival CPU maker Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and rival GPU company Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).

That painful phase served as something of a wake-up call for AMD, prompting a product overhaul that eventually gave rise to the Ryzen computer processor, the Vega graphics card and the Epyc server CPU.

All three have been everything owners of AMD stock could have hoped for, including major revenue drivers.

Investors have largely confused trajectory with altitude though. That is to say, the buzz created by the turnaround has been a palpable prod for the stock’s incredible quadruple-digit rebound from 2016’s lows. Hype, however, has carried Advanced Micro Devices stock to a valuation that wouldn’t be supported were it almost any other name.

That’s not a prediction for an outright implosion. Next year’s projected per-share profit of 64 cents translates into a forward-looking P/E of 38.6.

Investors have seen frothier prices. The trailing price/sales ratio of 4.26 is also uncomfortable, but hardly outrageous. Both leave plenty of room for a pullback though, even if it is only the result of short-term profit-taking.

Bulls Up the Ante

Not everyone on Wall Street is concerned. Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis recently upped his target on AMD stock to $30, perhaps prompting Wednesday’s surge to a peak of $29.94.

The analyst noted “Intel’s delayed 10nm roadmap—originally targeted for 2016 launch in client and now pushed to 2H19—opens opportunities for AMD across the business.”

Bank of America Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, boosted its price target from $25 to $35 this week, shortly after the $25 mark was broached.

Even the pure traders are getting in on the act. TradingAnalysis.com’s technical analyst Todd Gordon recently commented: “This is obviously this chip story stock here; it’s in a great technical position, great fundamental story behind it here, and I like it a little bit higher here.”

Gordon’s “little bit higher here” puts Advanced Micro Devices stock right around $30 as well.

All the rationales make all the superficial sense they’re supposed to. It can’t be overlooked, however, that none of the even-more-bullish price targets materialized until AMD had dished out the unexpected 28% gain for the last two weeks of August.

It’s much easier to tack on additional optimism when a stock is already rallying. When the hype machine is running at full capacity, it’s easy to fall into a performance-chasing trap without even realizing it.

In other words, the new-found bullishness from a handful of experts may only reflect an effort to tap into the stock’s admittedly incredible momentum. The fundamental justifications for the raised price targets likely wouldn’t have been voiced if the rally had stalled out under $20 last month.

Reality Check for AMD Stock

In some regards it doesn’t entirely matter. Anytime an investor is able to buy low and sell high, that’s a good stock, even if the fundamental underpinnings are wobbly.

In other senses though, it matters greatly simply because a company’s fundamentals will always eventually override a stock’s technical, momentum-driven condition. And all too often, that sudden appreciation for valuation comes without warning, wreaking painful havoc on a trend too many traders had just begun to believe in.

That’s the long way of saying AMD stock may not reach Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch target of $35 anytime soon, at least not without peeling back first.

Indeed, the stock is struggling just shy of $30, suspiciously immediately after a trio of professional stock handicappers just said it’s worth as much. That lack of follow-through from investors en route to a relatively easy target is telling in and of itself.

And interestingly, the consensus price target for AMD stock is still only right around $20, or almost 30% below its current price. Gordon, Lipacis and B of A’s Vivek Arya are seeing something nearly two-dozen other analysts just don’t see.

That alone should be a reason to think carefully about what’s actually in store here.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.