In financial markets, there are certain price levels that are more significant than others with regard to the amount of supply and demand that exists at them. In addition, prices are always doing one of three things. They are either going up, going down or going nowhere. When understood and applied correctly, technical analysis is an illustration of these dynamics. Being aware of, and understanding where these levels and trends are when investing in marijuana stocks can lead to massive profits.
Yes, technical analysts get a bad rap and I can understand why. Most technical analysts do not seem to understand the fundamentals. To make matters worse, some analysts employ esoteric techniques, such as Gann Theory, Harmonic Patterns or Elliot Waves. In my opinion there is no validity to such methods. They are in the realm of the Bigfoot and UFOs … fun to talk about, but hardly credible. Professional institutional traders do not pay attention to them.
As someone who traded in the hedge fund world for more than twenty years, I can tell you first hand what the pros do care about: Important support and resistance levels, trends, momentum, and risk management.
Let’s take a look and some of the supply-and-demand dynamics that are occurring in marijuana stocks. Knowing where the important levels and trends are can help you develop trading ideas. It can also and help you decide at which levels to place your buy and sell orders, and whether you should use market or limit orders. Read on for advice on how and where to trade the most popular pot stocks in the market today:
Marijuana Stocks to Buy 2019: Aphria (APHA)
On Monday the company announced that its President Jakob Ripshtein resigned. There has been considerable employee turnover in the upper echelons of management recently at Aphria. In January, CEO Vic Neufeld and Co-founder Cole Cacciavillani announced their resignation. Time will tell if these changes are a good or bad thing.
The APHA stock price has fallen about 30% in the past month, but it just broke its downtrend after becoming oversold.
It has been consolidating around the $7 level. In this situation, if I had been waiting to buy, I would go ahead and pull the trigger. This is because the downtrend line has been broken, possibly due to the sellers decision to cancel their orders on account of Ripshtein’s resignation.
There is nothing mysterious about trendlines — they are really just logic and common sense. If used correctly, trendlines should simply be graphical representations of the supply and demand dynamics that are occurring in markets. When the trend was headed lower it meant that the forces of supply were in control. Now that the downtrend has been broken, it illustrates that the forces of demand have equalized with the forces of supply.
Canopy Growth (CGC)
You don’t need to be a market guru to see that the levels between $65 and $70 have been an area of resistance. Since last September every time CGC traded up to these levels, the forces of supply stepped in and drove it down.
An important thing to understand about this company is that it loses money and CGC seems to be headed in the wrong direction. Last year the loss was 40 cents per share. That’s nearly three times greater than the loss of 14 cents in 2017. In 2016, the loss was 5 cents per share.
This is a situation where, if I was considering selling, I would pull the trigger. If I was a buyer I would wait. The reasons are simple: Canopy stock is starting to trend lower and there is resistance just overhead. The path of least resistance seems to be to the downside.
Aurora Cannabis (ACB)
Click to Enlarge Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) sells a lot of weed. ACB just reported its last quarter’s earnings and its gross margins came in at a hefty 55%. Further, revenue grew 20% to 65 million CAD, or roughly $50 million U.S. dollars. That works out to be about nine tons of the green stuff!
It is clear that over the past eighteen months, the $14 level has been where the sellers come alive. It was the top in early 2018, again in September, and, most recently, in April. If you are planning on selling Aurora Cannabis stock, knowing this level is important.
For example, suppose your broker or friend told you that ACB stock was worth $15 per share, suggesting you place your sell order at that level. The fact that there is a lot of supply at the $14 level may prevent the stock from getting to $15. It may make a better decision to place the order at $14. Sure, it is a lower price but it is probably better than having your order at $15 not be executed because the stock once again got to $14 and then proceeded to head lower.
It is currently oversold and testing support around the $10.30 level. There is support there because it was resistance in November and January.
Cronos Group (CRON)
Click to Enlarge Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) produces and sells cannabis in Canada and Germany. You don’t need to be a master trader to see that the $14 level is important to the CRON stock price. This level acted as resistance for Cronos stock in September and December, and now it is providing support.
Support levels form when a stock trades at a certain level and vested interest develops. In September and December, some investors sold short their CRON stock at $14. For a while, they were happy because they were thinking that they would be taking some profits. But in January, CRON traded above that.
The short sellers are now underwater and looking at taking losses. They tell themselves that if the stock trades back down to $14, they would close out their trades and break even. This means that now there will be buy interest and the $14 level will become support.
This is a situation where I would act whether I was a buyer or a seller. That is because it is either going to break support and fall or rebound and rise. One thing is for certain: It won’t stay at $14 forever.
You have to make a decision to act whether you are bullish or bearish. If you are correct and you wait too long, you may miss out on some profits.
Cannabis Sativa (CBDS)
Click to Enlarge Cannabis Sativa, Inc (OTCMKTS:CBDS) is engaged in all types of business related to cannabis, They develop, acquire and license various products including edibles, recipes and delivery systems. Maybe they do too many things because the company has been losing money for years. Over the past five years it has lost about $40 million.
CBDS stock has found support at prior support levels, though. This illustrates the importance of being aware of where the previous lows are. If you were considering buying CBDS shares and realized that it was in a downtrend and approaching levels that had been support in the past, then it would make sense to wait for a better price.
Recently, Cannabis Sativa stock has broken its downtrend and is consolidating. That means that the forces of supply have become equal with the forces of demand. While it was trending lower the forces of supply were in control. Now the forces of supply and demand have become equalized. This is what traders call sideways trading.
Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMLSF)
Click to Enlarge Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (OTCMKS:HMLSF) is a popular exchange-traded fund (ETF). You can see that it is testing support around the $15 level. This level was support on April 15. It is important because it was resistance in March and June of last year. It is also important psychologically.
Why is there support at this level? One reason is because there were investors who were considering buying it in April but never entered the trade. When they missed it, they told themselves that if it ever got back to $15, they would buy it. These dynamics form support.
This is one of the reasons why professional traders pay attention when stocks are approaching levels that were recent tops or bottoms. They understand these dynamics and use them to profit.
The long-term importance of the $20 level is obvious. It was resistance at the beginning of last year and again in September and October. This would be a logical area to place a Good-Til-Cancelled (GTC) sell order.
As of this writing, Mark Putrino did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.