Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) bulls are sweating the weight of bearish headlines this week. But does today’s pullback present a healthier entry into PTON stock or should investors be running scared? Let’s take a look at what’s happening both off and on the price chart to reach a stronger risk-adjusted determination.
If you’re wondering what’s going to be under the Christmas tree this year, it could be a Peloton fitness bike if we’re to believe the company’s holiday ad campaign. But don’t buy everything the ad is selling or you may find yourself sleeping on the couch.
In a nutshell, PTON stock’s television spot has received a good deal of criticism tied to its sexism and antiquated spousal relationships. The ad has even enjoyed a subtle poke in the eye from Ryan Reynolds’ Aviator Gin. The upstart beverage company spoofed the commercial with its own video using the same lead actress, while spending time with friends away from her bike and husband.
Peloton’s ad campaign helped promote a bit of backlash on the part of investors. But, given how poorly bad press like this has impacted other companies longer term, PTON stock bulls are probably done sweating that issue. But that’s not PTON stock’s only problem.
Already a name sporting its share of skeptics such as InvestorPlace’s Dana Blankenhorn, PTON stock has come under pressure this week following well-followed short-selling outfit Citron Research’s bearish call on the exercise equipment manufacturer. The firm issued a sell recommendation and price target of $5.00 on shares during Tuesday’s session.
Citron likens PTON to other familiar and once-prized discretionary consumer outfits Fitbit (NYSE:FIT) and GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO). Both names of course went from red hot-to-not as overzealous expectations got trampled by fundamentally flawed realities. Backing the short-seller’s outlook are doubts over Peloton’s digital strategy, which it sees as unsound and uninspired hardware differentiation to fend off competition.
The firm’s front-man Andrew Left does make a nice case for sounding the alarm bell on PTON. But after two sessions of reactionary selling, I’d suggest using the price chart to set future mindful warnings. Moreover, I’d recommend investors be prepared to ride PTON stock higher first.
PTON Stock Daily Price Chart
Source: Charts by TradingView
There’s no guarantees Peloton shares will go on to be the next Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) or Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). In fact, I’d strongly warn against that kind of optimism. But it would be wrong to ignore a technically strong PTON stock, which has been making all the right moves for bulls.
A first-stage cup breakout last month went on to provide gains of as much as 25% in just over three weeks. And despite this week’s losses, shares of Peloton remain in constructive shape. Currently, PTON stock is finding support above former pattern resistance in a bullish hammer pattern.
PTON Stock Strategy
I’d recommend buying PTON stock above $33.50. This entry provides evidence a bottoming candle within the trend that is in place. It also waits for a small bit of price momentum as shares will need to reclaim this week’s opening price before making a purchase.
I’d set an initial price target of $40 on Peloton shares. The momentum crowd could easily make a new leg to fresh highs in shares, so there’s no reason to be too overly defensive just yet. Aside from a nice round number, $40 is also where Fibonacci resistance comes into play within a mirror move pattern. If this plays out leg “AB” will eventually be matched by an identical price move from leg “CD.”
If PTON stock can really get ahead of itself like GPRO stock did, a move through the 100% completion level or even $50 a share is when PTON might become a more interesting short candidate.
In the event new highs aren’t reached, I would advise bullish investors to act on Citron’s warning. Given this strategy’s entry requirements, I’d set a stop-loss beneath $31. Bottom-line, this exit minimizes exposure on signs of technical weakness within PTON’s volatile framework. It also smartly avoids unnecessary, but possibly real panic sweating down the road.
Disclosure: Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler’s management do not currently own positions in securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional market insights and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.