In some ways conditions have been going sideways for Ocugen (NASDAQ:OCGN). But should investors own OCGN stock today and wait for a better outcome tomorrow?
Let’s look at what’s happening off and on the OCGN price chart. After, I’ll offer a risk-adjusted determination aligned with those findings.
But first, let’s set the scene.
The coronavirus pandemic. Since early 2020 Covid-19, and now its variants, have taken a huge toll on the U.S. Yet, as a society, we’ve also been much more fortunate than most other countries.
Without enterprising businesses like Zoom Video (NASDAQ:ZM) or Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and vaccines developed and distributed in record-setting fashion by Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), we could have been in a much worse place today.
The Story Behind OCGN Stock
In a different world, possibly, we might also know Ocugen as a household name, and OCGN stock holders could reasonably still be rejoicing. But in our reality, that’s sadly not the case.
Today, we’re also appreciatively beyond the “if not now when stage” for either to happen for Ocugen.
This week, all eyes are on India’s Bharat Biotech and its Covid vaccine Covaxin as it seeks to gain World Health Organization (WHO) emergency use listing. (The four-day meeting discussing the matter begins today).
Many of our global brothers and sisters are still desperately in need of vaccination supplies. Covaxin, which has already been used with great success in India, will invariably help with those challenges.
So what’s that have to do with OCGN? Right now, not much.
At one time though, things could have been much different. Prior to America’s first Covid shots, Ocugen — a once financially strapped nano-cap with ambitions to cure blindness — put together a clever business pivot partnering with India-based Bharat Biotech.
Bullish investors and Redditors alike answered the call.
Traders elevated the status of the once obscure OCGN stock up from a deeply entrenched nano-cap, penny stock valued at around 25 cents in December to a mid-cap worth nearly $19 a share, backed by a $2 billion valuation. But the enthusiasm for OCGN stock increasingly appears to have been misplaced.
Study Ocugen’s Weekly Price Chart
Source: Charts by TradingView
Importantly, OCGN’s arrangement with Bharat is for the distribution of its vaccine in North America. That’s right. The U.S. and our neighbor to the north.
It’s not a struggle to get vaccinated in the U.S. We can thankfully say we don’t need Ocugen. But that’s actually sort of besides the point too.
More relevant to OCGN’s business fortunes is that the Food and Drug Administration is unlikely to bend at this point and accept Covaxin.
As such, OCGN stock bulls shouldn’t hold their breath. Today, Ocugen’s price chart appears increasingly sympathetic to an adverse outcome.
For nearly four months, Ocugen shares have been mostly flat-lining in a channel pattern. Concerningly, it follows OCGN’s failed bullish cup-shaped base in the aftermath of the stock’s Covaxin-induced rally.
Also worrisome is that the lateral price congestion is showing signs of pending weakness.
The pattern is stationed on either side of OCGN stock’s 62% retracement level associated with its December to February rally, which many technicians hold as sacrosanct. What’s more, the weekly stochastics has crossed bearishly in neutral territory.
I’m not a medical doctor. But OCGN stock bulls are fighting an uphill battle and already going sideways.
Ultimately, there’s no reason to buy Ocugen today for the future. And for those positioned for “what might have been,” a contingency plan to exit makes sense. Don’t get left holding the bag.
On the date of publication, Chris Tyler does not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Chris Tyler is a former floor-based, derivatives market maker on the American and Pacific exchanges. For additional market insights and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.