Facebook Inc (FB) Stock Is Great, It’s Just a Little Husky

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Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), along with the other FANG stocks — Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) — have been on fire this year. FB stock alone is up more than 34% this year — quite the move for a $445 billion company.

Facebook Inc (FB) Stock Is Great, It's Just a Little Husky

Investors shouldn’t overlook Facebook’s dominance — in its business or in the stock price.

The Facebook Portfolio

After making perhaps the deal of the decade — purchasing Instagram for just $1 billion in 2012 — Facebook has transformed the platform. It only took Instagram four months to go from 600 million users to 700 million.

With the social network putting more emphasis on Instagram’s advertising and, given the user growth, it’s translating into more revenues. Unfortunately for us business junkies, Facebook doesn’t break out Instagram’s financials.

One concern for FB stock longs has been Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP), and its ability to lure younger users away from Instagram and onto Snapchat. But by copying some of Snap’s top features, Instagram looks to have landed some heavy blows. Especially when it comes to user engagement.

In the most recent quarter, Facebook’s daily active users climbed 18% to 1.28 billion, while monthly active users climbed 17% to 1.94 billion.

Valuation and Growth

Over the past 14 quarters, FB hasn’t missed one earnings estimate and has only came up short (albeit barely) once on revenue. After “only” growing revenue in the low 40% range in 2015, sales began accelerating aggressively. Facebook grew sales by more than 50% in each successive quarter last year, and is still on average to grow it by that much this year.

Given this growth, it’s no wonder FB stock is up 85% over the past two years and 135% over the last three. That’s a monster move, but surprisingly, Facebook hasn’t gotten more expensive. It’s actually gotten cheaper.

In March 2016, Facebook carried a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 90. Now, it’s about 40. The forward P/E is even better looking around 25, and while that’s a lofty valuation in a bubble, that’s pretty good considering the incredible growth expectations.

Analysts see Facebook expanding revenues by about 40% this year, then “just” 28% next. On the earnings front, analysts expect profits to balloon by 39% in 2017, 24% in 2018 and 25% annually for the next five years.

Is Facebook Too Saturated?

One concern for Facebook has been saturation — from both a user growth and ad load perspective. Despite these fears, FB user growth has been robust even as its peers, including Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), were experiencing stagnant growth.

 

When it comes to ad loads, consider how many more levers CEO Mark Zuckerberg has left to pull. Even though Facebook continues to delay the launch of its original videos, this will eventually be a good outlet for the company.

Unlike with some over-the-top providers, like Netflix, users will reportedly not pay for the service. Instead, they’ll watch video ads and commercials. If the content is good and hooks an audience, this will translate to big ad revenues for FB.

With chat bots, artificial intelligence, business pages and potential for Facebook stores, there are plenty of opportunities down the road. Ad loads, for now, aren’t a reason to worry about the long-term business.

How to Trade FB Stock

We’ve seen more volatility in the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQ) than usual. In particular, FANG stocks have been hit pretty hard in certain bouts of selling lately.

What does that mean for FB stock? It could mean that shares will come under pressure should FANG and the QQQ more downside this summer.

For bulls looking to get long or add to their position, that could be great news. A decline to the 200-day moving average near $134 would be healthy and welcome. It would provide us with a pullback of roughly 11% from current levels and still allow for a bullish chart formation.

FB stock chart

From a bearish perspective, I would not short FB stock. Its valuation isn’t egregious, its business is great, and its chart is still strong. For now, Facebook has support at the 20-day moving average, and not far below at the 50-day MA. The waning MACD (orange circle) isn’t enough reason to bet against it either.

Last month we said investors should wait for the pullback, then buy Facebook stock for the long term. That still holds true.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/06/facebook-inc-fb-stock-is-great-its-just-a-little-husky/.

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