For the past few years, QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) has been an ugly, ungainly investment. After breaching $70 territory in 2014, the QCOM stock price took a turn for the worse. Then, starting in early 2016, QCOM took off like a rocket along with other semiconductor and technology-related firms. Unfortunately, the move was short-lived, as Qualcomm quickly became one of the worst-performing tech firms of this year.

Personally, I feel bad for Qualcomm on a number of levels.

The company is headquartered right here in my hometown of San Diego, California. It’s an important… no, critical… asset to our local economy. I know many colleagues and friends from Sony Corp (ADR) (NYSE:SNE) that jumped ship to Qualcomm. It’s a reminder that, while we dissect QCOM stock or any other public investment, real people form the backbone of these companies.

At the same time, we have to be honest: Qualcomm has not inspired confidence. Whether it’s ongoing litigation involving Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) — which threatens its intellectual-property business — or its subpar investment performance against rivals such as Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN), the tech firm can’t seem to catch a break. Obviously, these headwinds have adversely affected the QCOM stock price.

Even the North Korean missile crisis, which has the potential to escalate very badly, hurts Qualcomm’s business. The company generates 17% of its revenues from South Korea. Any “hot” conflict, or even the credible threat of one, would be nasty for QCOM stock.

Tricky Circumstances Surround QCOM Stock

Despite the warning signs, I wrote about the “crazy bullish” argument for Qualcomm back in mid-August of this year. Keep in mind that, at the time of publication, the QCOM stock price was down 17.5% against its January open. Nobody really wanted to touch these shares with a ten-foot pole.

However, I couldn’t help but notice that the bears struggled to drop the QCOM stock price below the psychological support line of $50. Three distinct times they tried — and three times they failed. In my view, that gave the bulls a higher likelihood of engineering a recovery.

While it turns out that I was right, I was right for the wrong reasons. The business news media is talking non-stop about Broadcom Ltd’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) rejected takeover bid of Qualcomm. And thanks to rumors that Broadcom is willing to up the ante, the QCOM stock price launched into the stratosphere.

The irony in all this is that Qualcomm was actively pursuing its own takeover of NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ:NXPI). Moreover, NXP shareholders are holding out for a better deal. An investor group that holds 15% of NXP shares want at least $125 a pop, not the proposed $110. For the deal to work, 80% of NXP shareholders must sell or tender their position.

Many analysts assume that Broadcom will eventually buy out QCOM. A strong set of arguments exist for Qualcomm taking the deal, as our own Vince Martin asserts. But if, instead, Qualcomm secures NXP, then the QCOM deal for Broadcom becomes pricier. Not only that, Broadcom would inevitably be hit with antitrust and other regulatory inquiries.

Don’t Jump the Gun on QCOM Takeover Bid

I don’t necessarily share the same level of confidence that QCOM stock will be bought out like my InvestorPlace colleagues. These massive takeovers are usually tense, and speculating on them is especially risky.

I also take a dim view on Broadcom’s ability to turn around Qualcomm. As The San Diego Union-Tribune reported, the two parties sit on opposite ends of the patent-licensing issue. Patent licensing represents a major revenue maker for QCOM. Broadcom asserts that business is declining and will attempt to scare shareholders if the takeover bid goes hostile.

Of course, Apple stands to benefit significantly if Broadcom is successful. The circumstances behind these recent events stink to high heaven.

Moving forward, investors shouldn’t assume a higher QCOM stock price based on Broadcom sweetening the deal. Nor should they assume that buying Qualcomm is a win-win situation in the nearer-term. For example, QCOM could move higher from a buyout or it could rise (albeit slowly) if a buyout fails.

An alternative, and negative, possibility exists: the buyout fails, shocking Wall Street and plummeting QCOM stock. Stifel Nicolaus analyst Kevin Cassidy proposed that thesis, and it’s as good as any. I think it’s better than most simply because Cassidy’s outlook is based on whether or not a deal materializes.

It’s important to note that prior to this drama, Qualcomm had a significant lead in the 5G network race. Broadcom has no discernible strategy. Therefore, QCOM is, technologically speaking, in the driver’s seat.

But takeover madness gets the best out of people. In this case, it has caused extreme wildness in the QCOM stock price. Given the circumstances, those who were profitable from this swing may want to consider taking some profits off the table.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto is long SNE.