Digital Ad Growth Should Push Weibo Corp (ADR) Stock to $200

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WB - Digital Ad Growth Should Push Weibo Corp (ADR) Stock to $200

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In the stock market, sometimes the best trades are those that fit in with a secular growth story. One of the hottest secular growth stories over the past several years has been the boom in China consumerism, led by massive urbanization and digitization movements sweeping across China’s middle class.

Consequently, some of the best trades have been buying and holding China internet giants like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), JD.Com Inc(ADR) (NASDAQ:JD), Baidu Inc (ADR) (NASADQ:BIDU), Tencent Holding/ADR (OTCMKTS:TCEHY) and Weibo Corp (ADR) (NASDAQ:WB).

All of those stocks have been winners in a multiyear window.

But one of them stands out from the pack, and that is WB stock.

Weibo is often labeled as the Chinese Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR). As China consumers have become more digitally engaged, they have adopted social media rapidly. As such, Weibo has surged in popularity over the past several years.

And when I say surged, I mean surged. Weibo stock is up more than 700% over the past three years.

After such a huge run, it is natural to expect some consolidation in WB stock. But this run is far from over. Indeed, I think WB stock can cross the $200 mark within the next five years, and shares are presently worth around $114.

As such, I’m a buyer at current levels.

Here’s a deeper look.

Robust Growth Narrative Still Has a Lot of Firepower

Weibo is more or less a pure play on the boom in Chinese digital consumerism.

The more Chinese consumers urbanize, the more they will have smart phones and other smart devices. The more they have those devices, the more they will become digitally engaged through social media platforms. As engagement transitions from traditional to digital mediums in China, advertisers will follow suit and flock toward digital channels with max engagement.

Weibo, as a digital channel for advertisers with nearly 400 million monthly active users, is naturally a big winner in this transition.

With the stock up 700% over the past three years, it is easy to say that WB is well past its golden days.

But that isn’t true. If anything, the aforementioned growth drivers through increased digital engagement and increased digital ad spend are still in their early innings.

Weibo has just under 400 million monthly active users. Fellow Chinese social media and communication platforms WeChat and Weixin have a billion monthly active users.

As is seen in America, it is not unusual for consumers to have multiple social media accounts. In fact, it is the norm. Consumers often have accounts on Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB), Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat from Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP).

As such, Weibo has a pretty clear pathway to a billion users.

Moreover, Weibo’s average revenue per user (ARPU) was just $2.90 last year. Over at Twitter, Weibo’s U.S. comparable, ARPU was above $6 last year. Thus, as the China digital advertising landscape starts to look more and more like the U.S. digital advertising landscape, WB’s ARPU should trend toward $6.

Weibo Stock Could Hit $200 Within Five Years

Weibo is currently adding roughly 80 million users per year. Considering the huge addressable market in China and the billion user size of WeChat/Weixin, it is likely that WB continues to add around 80 million users per year. Over the next five years, then, WB should be able to add 400 million new users, giving the company a total user count of around 800 million.

Assuming ARPU trends toward a more normal $6 level by then, WB is looking at revenues of basically $4.8 billion in five years. Net profit margins at WB currently hover around 35%. Given robust ARPU growth, they should be able to trend toward Facebook levels of around 40%.

A 40% net profit margin on $4.8 billion in revenues implies net profits of just over $1.9 billion. On 230 million shares, that equates to earnings per share of about $8.35.

A multiple similar to Facebook and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG) (25 times forward earnings) on those $8.35 earnings implies a four-year forward price target of nearly $210. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a present value of over $140.

Bottom Line on WB Stock

WB stock has been on a tear over the past several years. This level of returns won’t persist over the next several years. But Weibo stock will keep rallying, and this stock could break above $200 within the next five years.

As such, I’m a buyer at current levels.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long WB, FB, GOOGL, BABA, JD, BIDU and TCEHY. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/digital-ad-growth-should-push-weibo-stock-to-200/.

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