The stock market’s big growth winners, which have led the market higher for the past several years, are now dragging the market lower.
Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) is 20% off its 2018 highs thanks to data leak and regulation concerns. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is 10% off its 2018 highs due to regulatory and valuation risks. Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is 14% off its 2018 highs because #deleteNetflix is trending in Brazil.
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG) is 15% off 2018 highs because the EU has renewed intentions to break up the search giant. Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA
) is 12% off 2018 highs because the company suspended self-driving tests following a fatal Uber accident. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is 8% off 2018 highs because analysts are trimming iPhone estimates.
But of all of those struggling tech giants, none have fallen on rougher times than Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). TSLA stock is a whopping 28% off 2018 highs. It’s now hovering right around 52-week lows.
Why the sudden and sharp drop in TSLA stock? A confluence of headwinds — none of which are going away anytime soon. Thus, headline risks will continue to depress sentiment surrounding TSLA stock over the next several months.
But thereafter, once the dust settles, TSLA stock will be a buy. The price is right, but the timing is not.
Most Near-Term Headwinds Are Just Noise
Tesla stock has been hit by a confluence of headwinds recently.
Firstly, Model 3 production appears to be well behind schedule. Bloomberg estimates weekly production at 1,000 vehicles per week, well below TSLA’s 2,500 target.
Secondly, the entire automated driving industry hit a road bump recently when an Uber self-driving car hit and killed someone in Tempe, Arizona. That caused NVDA to halt self-driving tests and yet again delays Tesla’s automated driving ambitions.
Thirdly, the National Transportation Safety Board recently launched an investigation into a fatal crash involving a Tesla Model X. That’s not good.
Fourthly, and most importantly, Moody’s downgraded Tesla’s credit rating based on Model 3 production delays. According to Moody’s, Tesla will need to raise an additional $3 billion soon (roughly $2 billion to cover cash burn this year and another $1.2 billion for debt that comes due by 2019).
Of all those headwinds, only one really concerns me, and that is the company’s currently troubled credit situation.
Model 3 production ramp is slower than expected. But it is still ramping, from 400 vehicles per week at the beginning of the year to 1,000 vehicles per week today. And Tesla has shown an ability to ramp production of its vehicles before. It always takes longer than expected, but it always happens.
Automated driving was due to have a fatal setback. It is exceptionally tragic, and companies will reasonably halt their self-driving tests in the near term. But longer term, not much has changed about the automated driving growth narrative. Companies will continue to innovate in this space, and Tesla will one day have self-driving cars.
The Tesla Model X crash and subsequent investigation is also nothing to really worry about long-term. Chances are that the investigation concludes that this accident was an anomaly and not indicative of the overall safety of Tesla cars. So the company’s safety reputation shouldn’t take a big hit.
But Credit Issues Are Scary
Tesla’s currently troubled credit situation, however, is scary. There is a tremendous amount of debt on Tesla’s balance sheet. And that debt load is only getting bigger.
Meanwhile, there still aren’t any profits. Nor is there any positive cash flow. Borrowing costs are also heading up, so profit margins will be under further pressure. And Tesla is losing credibility, meaning its chances of raising more money are slimmer than they were before.
These credit issues constitute too much risk to TSLA stock here and now.
But I believe these credit issues will be resolved. Although Elon Musk always overpromises and under-delivers, he eventually always delivers. Bondholders know this. That is why despite recent turbulence in Tesla’s corporate bonds, I think it is very likely that the company secures the necessary financing to keep the doors open until profitability ramps up.
If so, then TSLA stock is undervalued here. I continue to believe that if these credit issues get resolved, Model 3 production ramp will drive TSLA stock to $450.
Bottom Line on TSLA Stock
There is too much risk in Tesla stock here and now. Specifically, investors need to see how the credit situation plays out before taking a large position in the company.
But if that situation gets sorted without much damage, then TSLA stock will head dramatically higher.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB and GOOGL.