Stocks were set to open slightly lower on Nov. 28 as investors awaited new reports on inflation and comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.
At 8:30 a.m., S&P 500 futures were trading down 0.3%, Nasdaq futures were down 0.37%, and Dow 30 futures were down 0.15%.
All the averages remain up for the year, the Nasdaq leading with a gain of over 36%.
A Break or a Breakpoint?
The “Magnificent Seven” have dominated the market so far in 2023.
These are Cloud Czars Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), along with chip designer Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and electric carmaker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).
All are up much more than the averages. Nvidia is the star, advancing 230%, with Meta up 178%.
Most forecasters expect modest gains from here. FactSet says the S&P 500 trades 22 times last year’s earnings and 19 times forecasts for the next year. The average over the last 20 years is for stocks to trade 18 times the previous year’s earnings.
Many worry that valuations for the Magnificent Seven are severely stretched. Strategies based on diversification haven’t worked as well as just piling into the leaders.
This has analysts looking for alternatives among retailers, energy companies and smaller tech outfits. Others are pushing small-cap stocks and emerging markets.
November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) won’t come out until the middle of December. But the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for October, which the Federal Reserve watches closely, is due out on Nov. 30.
The Fed’s “Beige Book,” describing current economic conditions, is due Nov. 28, and various Fed officials will be speaking throughout the week. Fed chairman Jerome Powell will also speak at a moderated discussion in Atlanta on Dec. 1.
What Happens Next?
Barring the unexpected, there should be only modest moves in most stocks over the coming month. A “Santa Claus rally” is traditional, but many traders might skip it for Christmas shopping.
As of this writing, Dana Blankenhorn had LONG positions in AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA and GOOGL. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
