While the fall of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been the Electric Vehicle (EV) story in 2024, its smaller rival Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) has done worse. This performance is central to this RIVN stock outlook.

Rivian shares are down almost 29% since 2024 started, against a 22% fall in Tesla.

Rivian is due to report earnings on February 21, after delivering 13,972 cars and trucks in the fourth quarter. That’s short of the 15,564 delivered in the third quarter but may be a harbinger of good news. Rivian has been losing money on every vehicle it makes.

Bang the Drum Slowly

Despite its losses, analysts spent most of last year pounding the table for Rivian. There are still some things going for it.

First is the 100,000 van order from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which retains a minority stake in the stock. Second is Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who put $1.5 billion of taxpayer money into the company to secure its second manufacturing plant.

Then there’s the Georgia plant itself, which will make a new line called the R2, priced at around $40,000. There will also be some tweaks to the current models, which could help increase sales. Car & Driver calls the R1 “one of the most capable EVs ever.”

But the brokers have been banging the drum more slowly lately. Two recently lowered their price targets on the stock, although Needham and Barclays (NYSE:BCS) maintained buy ratings. Rivian has been conducting layoffs, while lifting production forecasts.

Can Rivian Be Saved?

The problem is that, like many other EV companies, Rivian is in a race between its losses and its cash. The R2 line isn’t due until 2026, and meanwhile, the whole EV complex is hurting. Chinese companies like BYD (OTCMKTS:BYDDF) stand ready to sell EVs for just $25,000. All that has hit Rivian’s stock price hard since the start of the year.

Rivian is down only 11% over the last full year, and it still had nearly $8 billion in cash at the end of the third quarter. The third quarter report shows it cutting its cash burn rate, but operating cash flow still averages negative $1.3 billion. The company has been staying afloat by buying debt. The debt load was up to $5.9 billion in September.

At the present rate, it seems Rivian will run out of cash runway before the Georgia plant is completed unless it sells more stock. That will water down current shareholders. The next year should also see several small EV companies collapse. General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motor (NYSE:F) are pulling back, reducing competition. This is an important part of the RIVN stock outlook.

So far, Wall Street remains on Rivian’s side. Of 14 analysts following the stock at Tipranks, 8 are still telling clients to buy. One even had a price target of $36 on the stock. Small investors, measured at Stocktwits, also remain optimistic. As more consumers look to boycott Tesla, they might want to look at what Rivian has to offer.

The Bottom Line

I was somewhat optimistic when Rivian came public. I’m less so now.

This is a highly speculative play. The Chinese are coming and scaring even better-capitalized companies. Tesla is still producing a massive number of cars and dropping prices. Rivian can’t scale much beyond the current level, and it faces a cash crunch. Now Ford says it will meet that $25,000 BYD EV price through a “skunk works” it has had operating for two years.

Despite what oil lovers tell you, the EV transition is happening. By their nature, EVs are cheap and simple machines. Electric motors can scale from powering bikes and scooters to trains and planes, and the design is always the same.

If Rivian can get to 2026 intact, it has a chance. Care to place a bet on that? I don’t, but if I were 30 years younger, I’d consider it. This concludes my RIVN stock outlook.

As of this writing, Dana Blankenhorn had a LONG position in AMZN. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com, tweet him at @danablankenhorn, or subscribe to his free Substack newsletter.