7 Big Tech Stocks to End This Bear Market

tech stocks - 7 Big Tech Stocks to End This Bear Market

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Technology stocks were once the leaders of the bull market. From early 2016 to October 2018, Big Tech stocks powered a near-90% rally in the Nasdaq, which was accompanied by a 65%-plus rally in the S&P 500 and a near 60% rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Since early October, however, tech stocks have fallen off a cliff due to concerns regarding rising rates, bigger tariffs, slowing growth and regulation. The market has lost its leadership. Everything has dropped. Now, the Nasdaq is almost 15% off recent highs, and both the S&P and Dow are just shy of 10% off recent highs.

The consensus among analysts and traders is that this market won’t stage a steady rebound until we get new leadership. Fortunately, fundamentals imply that Big Tech stocks are re-emerging as leaders and beginning to power a big market rally.

While near-term optics in the market and among the tech stocks are poor, the long-term fundamentals underlying the tech sector remain promising. It is only a matter of time before near term optics improve, the market re-focuses on the promising long-term fundamentals and tech stocks lead the market higher.

With that in mind, here are the seven Big Tech stocks that investors should be watching as they turn a corner and lead the whole market toward a massive rebound.

FB Stock May Be Setting Up as a Buy

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Facebook (FB)

At the top of this list is one of the Big Tech stocks that has been most damaged during this recent selloff. Social media giant Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) has been hampered by a great number of headwinds over the past several months.

Revenue growth across the entire digital ad industry is cooling from once red-hot rates. Facebook’s user growth is stalling out. Multiple data scandals have brought regulatory and media scrutiny, and further eroded the platform’s popularity. Margins are dropping due to increased data security spend as a fallout of those scandals. Analysts are chopping estimates and price targets. Hedge funds are selling the stock.

Overall, the past few months have been nothing but disaster for this company. That is why Facebook stock currently trades nearly 40% off its mid-2018 highs.

But, not all is lost for Facebook, and at current prices, near-term risks are greatly overstated and long-term growth potential is significantly understated. At its core, Facebook operates four of the most widely used social media apps in the world, all of which have over 1 billion monthly active users. Those apps aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, nor is engagement on them going to drop in any significant way. The world is only becoming more digital and social than ever, implying that social media has long-term staying power in the digital economy.

Meanwhile, Facebook has only fully monetized one of those apps. The other three apps (Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger) are only partly monetized, giving Facebook’s revenue base a long and healthy runway in front of it. Margins are depressed now due to increased data security spend, but eventually, those costs will be washed away by big revenue growth, and this company will get back to 20%-plus revenue growth at 40%-plus operating margins.

FB stock currently trades at just 18X forward earnings. That is an anemic multiple for a company with as robust of growth potential as Facebook. As such, it is only a matter of time before near-term optics clear up and Facebook stock rebounds. Indeed, FB is trading 3% higher today to lead the market rally.

NVIDIA Stock nvda stock

Source: via Nvidia

Nvidia (NVDA)

Second on this list is a Big Tech stock that has been more damaged than even Facebook. Chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was once the face of artificial intelligence (AI). But long-term AI upside has been clouded by a plethora of near-term risks.

The whole semiconductor space is feeling the backlash of rising supply and falling demand amid a global economic slowdown. Nvidia is especially feeling this supply glut due to the cryptocurrency mining boom suddenly and dramatically ending. As such, revenue growth is slowing and margin expansion is moderating. Plus, as tariffs ramp up and rates head higher, Nvidia’s near-term growth prospects and valuation are being called into question.

Overall, the past few months have been a disaster for Nvidia. As such, since early October, Nvidia stock has dropped 50%. But this selloff in Nvidia stock is a case of investors putting too much emphasis on the trees, and not enough emphasis on the forest. Right now, there are a few bad trees on the horizon for Nvidia.

The crypto hangover is exacerbating an inventory issue, which will take one to two quarters to clear. That will weigh on revenue and profit growth for the next several months. But thereafter, revenue and profit growth should re-accelerate quickly because this growth story isn’t about cryptocurrency mining. It’s about the AI and data booms, which are still in their early stages.

Over the next several years, Nvidia will continue to grow at a robust rate as investment in and deployment of AI and data-driven solutions grows by leaps and bounds globally. As such, this is still the same AI and data-driven company that it was two months ago.

But, the valuation is much more compelling now. Nvidia stock trades at just 20X forward earnings. That is dirt cheap for a company that is constructing the building blocks of tomorrow’s most important technologies. As such, long-term fundamentals remain robust here, and it’s only a matter of time before the market re-focuses on those fundamentals and pushes NVDA stock higher.

amazon stock AMZN stock

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Amazon (AMZN)

Once thought untouchable because of its robust growth potential, this next Big Tech stock has been hit hard during the recent selloff. E-commerce and cloud behemoth Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has had a rough few months. First, concerns over higher rates slowing economic growth and threatening equity valuations really provided a double whammy headwind to the big-growth and richly valued Amazon stock. Then, Amazon’s recent quarterly numbers didn’t do much to appease those concerns. Instead, those numbers pointed to a huge slowdown in the retail business. They affirmed recent fears that growth is slowing and the valuation is too big.

Altogether, Amazon stock has tumbled since early October. During that stretch, the stock has fallen 25%.

But, this remains one of the most promising companies in the stock market universe. Amazon has exposure to multiple secular growth markets, and is either the leader or a hyper-growth player in all of them. You have the hyper-growth cloud business, Amazon Web Services, which is growing at a 40%-plus and accelerating rate, and is the leading business is a 20%-plus growth market.

You also have the digital advertising business, which has more than doubled year-over-year for three straight quarters, and it still has a long ways to go before it’s Facebook or Google big. There is also the rapidly expanding offline retail business, which provides a huge long-term opportunity, and the company’s nascent but promising forays into the big pharma, logistics, and fin-tech markets.

Overall, the long-term Amazon growth narrative remains very promising. There are near-term risks which are creating turbulence in Amazon stock here and now. This turbulence may persist given the staying power of these risks. But, recent weakness is ultimately nothing more than a healthy reset and a buying opportunity for multi-year oriented investors.

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Apple (AAPL)

Even the world’s biggest and most valuable company wasn’t spared during the recent stock market rout. Consumer technology giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was a survivor in the early stages of the tech selloff. As the popular FANG names dropped big in early October, Apple stock’s losses were relatively constrained. Then Apple reported weak quarterly numbers that hinted at slower-than-expected iPhone growth.

Thereafter, many of Apple’s big suppliers reported weak numbers and cut guides, with the common thread being weaker-than-expected smartphone demand. Altogether, the results painted a picture of significantly weaker than expected iPhone demand this holiday season. Analysts came in and cut estimates and price targets. Apple stock dropped.

This selloff has happened rather quickly. Since early October, Apple stock is down more than 20%, with the majority of that sell off coming in the last few weeks.

But, near-term iPhone demand weakness is nothing more than a headline risk that will ultimately pass. We have seen this headline risk before. First, in 2012-13. Then, we saw it again in 2015-2016. Both times, Apple stock dropped significantly on reports of stalled out iPhone demand. Both times, those reports were overstated. Apple leveraged higher prices to offset stalled unit growth, and continued to drive revenues and profits higher. Apple stock rebounded in a big way both in 2013 and in 2016.

The same thing should play out this time. Apple’s iPhone business is stable, characterized by stalled out unit growth and healthy price growth. Meanwhile, the new hardware business is booming, led by Apple Watch, and the new software business remains red hot.

Meanwhile, the valuation on Apple stock is attractive here at just 13X forward earnings. History says further compression is likely. But, this selloff will ultimately end with a big bounce back.

Netflix stock nflx stock

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Netflix (NFLX)

The highest flyer in the tech world was also one of the biggest losers during the recent rout. Streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) was once Wall Street’s favorite growth name. That all changed over the past several months as Netflix finally reported sub-par subscriber growth in mid-2018. That led to a big selloff in Netflix stock.

Then, although subscriber growth bounced back the following quarter, Netflix stock continued to sink as higher interest rates weighed on Netflix’s valuation and made the debt-burdened balance a bigger headwind. Moreover, concerns regarding a global economic slowdown have called into question the health of Netflix’s international growth narrative.

Altogether, Netflix stock hasn’t been itself over the past few months. Since peaking in July 2018, Netflix stock has dropped more than 35%.

But, the selloff is more representative of a valuation correction than anything else. The long-term fundamentals remain robust here. Internet TV remains a mega-trend that is rapidly gaining share globally. Within the next decade, essentially all entertainment consumption globally will be done through internet TV, not linear TV.

Netflix is the unchallenged leader in this space, and while competition is coming from Disney (NYSE:DIS) and others, Netflix’s value prop to consumers of having access to a robust and quality original content portfolio for just $11 per month is too good for consumers to ignore. Indeed, this value prop may actually become more attractive during a slowdown relative to linear TV, which can cost up to $100 per month.

Inevitably, Netflix will be in hundreds of millions of households within the next decade. This robust user growth coupled with price hikes will allow the company to report significant revenue and earnings growth, the likes of which should power Netflix stock higher from its currently depressed base.

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Intel (INTC)

Nvidia isn’t the only tech giant that has been in a funk in 2018.

The largest chip company by market cap, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), has also had a rough 2018. Intel’s story in 2017 was one characterized by a hugely successful turnaround from a PC-centric business to a data-centric business. Intel broadened its product reach, and in so doing, recharged growth by becoming a big player in secular growth markets like datacenter and the Internet of Things (IoT). But, this turnaround has hit some road-bumps in 2018, and as Intel’s growth has been challenged by rising competition and deteriorating semiconductor fundamentals, Intel stock has dropped.

Intel stock currently trades about 16% off its all-time highs. But INTC stock is also up nearly 10% over the past month. That is because Intel just reported robust quarterly results that underscore that the datacenter and IoT growth narratives remain as strong as ever. This is no surprise.

Enterprises globally are finally starting to understand the importance of storing and analyzing data, and the amount of data globally is also growing by leaps and bounds thanks to increased digital engagement. As such, the datacenter growth narrative has tons of firepower. Meanwhile, every device in the world is seemingly becoming smart these days, and this trend won’t reverse anytime soon. Thus, the IoT growth narrative also has tons of firepower.

Despite these strong growth drivers, Intel stock trades at just 10-11X forward earnings. That is a dirt cheap multiple for broad exposure to the cloud, AI, data and IoT growth markets. As such, Intel stock should bounce back to all-time highs, and if it does, it could carry the whole chip sector higher, too.

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Alphabet (GOOG)

As the digital ad industry has suffered from regulation concerns, the industry’s biggest player has dropped, too. Digital ad giant Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) was once loved by Wall Street for its big growth, consistency, and stability. Now, though, those positive attributes are being overshadowed by operational risks.

The biggest of these risks is a regulation crackdown, which could result in heftier taxes, lower profit margins, and a hampered ability to fully monetize the core digital search platform. Slowing digital ad growth rates across the whole industry is also a risk, especially with global economic growth slowing. Also, margins have been a big problem for Alphabet thanks to mobile ads carrying higher acquisition costs.

Overall, Alphabet stock has struggled with the rest of the tech sector over the past few months. The stock is currently flirting with bear market territory — down 5% over the past month in spite of Monday’s gains — the first time it has done that since early 2015. Despite the aforementioned operational risks, the core bull thesis for Alphabet stock remains unchanged. This company provides a service that is the backbone of the internet essentially everywhere in the world except in China. As long as internet usage continues to grow (which seems like an inevitably outcome), then Alphabet’s value as indispensable digital tool will only grow, too.

Plus, the company has huge nascent growth drivers in AI and self-driving vehicles. Those growth drivers aren’t really showing up on the financial statements yet but they will soon. When they do, we are talking about potentially billion dollar revenue tailwinds.

Overall, there is still a lot to like about GOOG stock. Yet, the stock trades at just 24X forward earnings, which is pretty cheap considering the company’s track record of stable 20%-plus growth. Eventually, near-term headline risks will pass, and GOOG stock will roar higher on big growth from AI, self-driving and digital ads.

Don't Expect Earnings to Save Alibaba Stock

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Alibaba (BABA)

The U.S. stock market has just recently entered correction territory. But, this correction has been playing out in China for a while now. China e-commerce and cloud giant Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) peaked well before any of its U.S. peers peaked, and that is because while the U.S. economy is just now showing signs of slowing, the Chinese economy has been showing signs of slowing for several months now.

Escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China coupled with tariffs have caused the once red-hot Chinese economy to cool. Investors are fearful there will be no resolution soon and are therefore expecting things to get worse before they get better. As investors have more broadly adopted this bearish-skewing stance on China, Alibaba stock has fallen off a cliff.

This stock peaked back in June. Ever since, BABA stock has tumbled more than 30%.

But, the drop looks almost silly when compared to the company’s underlying growth. Last quarter, revenues increased by over 50%, comprised by over 50%-plus core commerce growth and 90% cloud computing growth. Active customers were up. Mobile users were up. The guide calls for 50%-plus revenue growth this year, versus 60% last year, so not much of a slowdown.

The one big concern here is margins. Margins are getting squeezed because Alibaba is investing in new growth opportunities like offline retail, cloud and more. But, this margin compression is all driven by growth-related investments. Thus, once Alibaba’s nascent offline retail, cloud and AI businesses scale, these investments will pare back, and margins will ramp higher.

The attractive thing about BABA stock is that despite 50%-plus revenue growth, the stock trades at less than 30X forward earnings. That is simply too cheap for this hyper-growth giant. Its U.S. peer, Amazon, trades at 80X forward earnings on slower revenue growth. Thus, trade tensions between the U.S. and China will eventually improve, and once they do, this stock could lead a huge rebound in the China tech sector.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB, NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, DIS, INTC and GOOG.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/11/big-tech-stocks-lead-market-rebound/.

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