Under Armour Inc (UAA) Stock Stumbles by Going the Apple Way

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In technology, there are two ways to introduce something. Think of them as the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) way and the Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) or Google way.

UAA Stock: Under Armour Inc (UAA) Stock Stumbles by Going the Apple Way

The Apple way seeks proprietary advantage. All intellectual property is tightly controlled. There is a price for everything. The brand absorbs the savings Moore’s Law brings to the technology inside it, and profits.

The Google way seeks market growth. You offer an open-source method that allows others to benefit. It’s all free to try. You grow with the market.

In the world of athletic technology, Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA) has chosen the Apple way. The market is killing it for this. Its offerings are being called “too technical” and teens are said to prefer arch-rival Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE).

Really? Under Armour Is a Dog?

InvestorPlace writers agree. There’s a “glut” of athleisure apparel, writes Joseph Hargett. UAA stock has a “serious branding problem,” writes Vince Martin. Think twice, writes Will Ashworth. It’s “still a loser,” writes Josh Enomoto.

I can’t argue with them.

Since its April 2016 stock split, meant to give founder and CEO Kevin Plank the control Google’s founders have over the company, the shares are down 56%.

The problem isn’t in the financials. Under Armour’s December quarter showed revenue of $1.305 billion, up from $1.170 billion a year earlier. Net income only fell marginally, from $105.6 million in 2015 to $103.23 million a year later. Debt is down, and cash flow is up.

Yet the market has reacted as though UAA stock were going out of business. Shares fell from $29 to less than $22 immediately after the report came out, and opened for trade Apr 13 at $19.28. They need a change, and soon, writes James Brumley, because the March quarter looks terrible, with a loss of three cents per share expected, albeit on revenue of $1.14 billion.

The change Under Armour needs is simple. Plank needs to find his inner Google.

The Apple Mistake

Everything about UAA stock today, like Apple, screams proprietary advantage.

Stung by the failures of old retail partners like the Sports Authority, Under Armour is opening its own stores. They even look like Apple stores, located in urban centers. Plank is even building his own “spaceship,” a re-imagination of the waterfront in his hometown of Baltimore.

Don’t be athletic, the company says. Be The Rock. In my fantasies, I would love to be Dwayne Johnson. Unfortunately, my mom gave birth to Dana Blankenhorn, with a bunion on one foot, and while I like my bicycle I am not going to spend all day working on my abs when I have stories to write. Apple, it should be noted, has barely 10% of the smartphone market.

Winning in the mass market, it turns out, means winning in the mass market. Under Armour bought MapMyFitness for $150 million in 2013, then spent another $560 million on MyFitnessPal and Endomondo, transforming them from tools for casual athletes into tools for elite athletes. As companies like FitBit Inc (NYSE:FIT) captured the athletic band market, MapMyFitness refused to support them, in favor of competing Under Armour products.

There’s your problem. We can’t all be The Rock. But we can be better Dana Blankenhorns, if technology will give us a chance. Under Armour needs to give us that chance.

Aspiration vs. Reality for UAA Stock

Based on a discounted cash flow model, Under Armour should be worth 44% more than it presently is. Technically, the chart presents a pretty compelling setup.

All Plank needs to do to score those gains is recognize the difference between a weekend athlete’s aspiration and their reality. Athletic technology isn’t just for elite athletes. It’s for everyone. It’s a lifestyle choice, to measure ourselves against yesterday and at least try to match it.

Once Under Armour opens its technology to the mass market, taking advantage of Moore’s Law rather than trying to fight it as Apple does, today’s stock price will look like a bargain.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of the sci-fi novella Into the Cloud, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned shares in AAPL and GOOGL.

Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Tweet him at @danablankenhorn, connect with him on Mastodon or subscribe to his Substack.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/04/under-armour-inc-uaa-stock-stumbles/.

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