Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) topped analyst estimates for this past quarter, and investors have rewarded Apple stock. It came into earnings trading at $169 and has now moved up nicely around the $185 level. In the wake of Apple’s upside surprise, analysts are racing to raise their price targets.

The consensus seems to be that AAPL stock is now a lock for a greater than $1-trillion market cap and $200/share price in the near future. Here’s why you should temper your enthusiasm.

iPhone Sales Weren’t That Great

Over the course of the past quarter, several major Apple parts suppliers gave troubling guidance. The Street interpreted this to conclude that iPhone sales would miss expectations, since their suppliers were struggling.

This didn’t end up happening, at least not in this quarter. The analysts, as a result, admitted they’d misread the tea leaves and are now rushing to walk back their previous statements.

Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley, for example, noted that they had forecast a high sales figure for iPhones for the quarter. They slashed that estimate down based on the supplier shortfall.

Huberty explained what happened next, saying: “Weaker iPhone supplier results suggested meaningful downside in the June quarter which didn’t come to fruition.” It’s important to note, however, that Apple still fell short of Morgan Stanley’s initial sales estimate before the supplier problems arose.

It’s also worth considering that the average selling price for an iPhone came in at $728 for the quarter. That came up shy of the $742 analyst consensus estimate. This suggests that the AAPL stock bears were correct in doubting how much demand there was for the higher-end iPhone X models. Even for Apple, there’s a limit to how high a price the market will bear.

Apple Stock Bulls’ Reply: Services and Other Products

In all fairness, there were a few impressive things in Apple’s quarterly earnings report. It grew services revenues by 31% on the quarter. This is the sort of revenue that the Street loves since it tends to be recurring and often comes with high margins. Importantly, services revenues were up by a 25%+ pace in all the company’s regions.

Our Luke Lango recently said to “Forget the iPhone X” and focus on everything else. And he certainly makes a great point about the rate of growth for ancillary products such as Beats, Airpods and so on.

Even there, though, revenues aren’t growing fast enough to really spark Apple stock. Lango wrote: “All together, Apple’s Other Products category reported revenue of nearly $4 billion this quarter, up 38% year-over-year. Three years ago, Apple’s other products accounted for just $1.7 billion in revenue.”

Again though, $4 billion out of an overall $61 billion pie for the quarter really isn’t so much. Grow other products at a 25% clip for this quarter next year, and you add $1 billion to a company currently producing $61 billion in revenues. A slight dip in iPhone performance would more than wipe that gain out.

Not Much of an Upside Story Here

Ultimately though, services revenues make up just 14% of Apple’s revenues at the moment, and other products are in the single digits. That’s not enough to move the needle for a company of Apple’s size or market cap.

Apple needs something big to get the company’s momentum going again if it wants to sell a growth story to investors. Since the iPad, what innovations has Apple brought to the market?

The watch is still growing nicely but hasn’t reached critical mass. iPods are dead, iPads are old hat now, and Macs remain a niche competitor against Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) and its Windows dominance.

The hope was that Apple would be able to transition a large portion of users to more expensive smartphones. Having failed to create dominant new hardware and falling horribly behind Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) on smart speakers, Apple is trying to go back to the iPhone well once again.

But it just doesn’t appear to be working. As mentioned, the average selling price missed analyst expectations, and fewer than 20% of iPhone sales this quarter were of the iPhone X. Services can’t drive the whole revenue growth story here, Apple needs to come up with something else. If it doesn’t, Apple stock isn’t going up very far anytime soon.

But Apple Stock Is Cheap, Right?

AAPL stock bulls can still use the argument that the stock is cheap compared to the broad market. They can also say that it pays a modest 1.4% dividend along with its gigantic share buyback program.

Is Apple stock cheap? I’d argue, no, not really. It’s hardly expensive at 17x trailing earnings, but that doesn’t scream deep value either. Almost 4x sales for a business that has slow revenue growth is fine, but it’s not compelling.

Yes, AAPL stock is moving to 14x earnings on a forward basis, largely on the basis of the tax cut and share buyback. That’s not so great either, though. Other FAANG stocks such as Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) are still growing earnings at a blistering pace and trading under 20x forward PE.

There’s a long-held stock market adage that warns that the company with the #1 ranked market cap in the U.S. rarely produces great total returns.

For example, the two previous holders of that crown since 2000 were Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and General Electric Company (NYSE:GE). Since then, XOM stock has woefully underperformed the broader market on a total-return basis. And with GE, the less said, the better.

Simply put, once your company gets huge, it’s hard to keep expanding. Management is pressured to keep growing, but sometimes it just can’t find good opportunities.

Management is making an effort with services to find a new trick to power the company past the $1-trillion market cap mark. And it’ll probably get there sooner or later, particularly combined with share buybacks.

But with revenue growth stalled out and the effort to move more expensive iPhones not really taking off, the road ahead will be bumpy for Apple stock. It’s still a fine holding for more conservative investors, but don’t expect it to beat the S&P 500 by much anymore, let alone outrun its more nimble tech peers.

At the time of this writing, the author owned FB and XOM stocks. He had no positions in the other aforementioned securities. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.