In a crowded crop of cannabis stocks Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) remains a favorite among analysts for more than a few good reasons. But the the price chart still suggests CGC stock isn’t ready for picking. In fact, the stock could grow into a very profitable shorting opportunity. Let me explain.
Shares of Canopy Growth seemingly have everything going for it. The latest to promote that fact is investment firm Stifel. Analyst W. Andrew Carter initiated shares Thursday with a buy rating and price target of CAD $64 or an equivalent $47.77 USD for the NYSE-listed shares. At the same time CGC stock was hailed as the “best investable opportunity” in cannabis.
Behind the bullish-sounding praise, Mr. Carter pointed out Canopy’s best-in-breed leadership and large-scale infrastructure in Canada. The company’s partnership with Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), Canopy’s multiple channels to profit from the U.S. market and its top-notch positioning for cashing in on global medicinal opportunities were also noted.
The problem with the approval is there’s nothing new under the sun here. Stifel’s recommendation states the obvious to anyone with more than a passing interest in CGC stock over the past year. Further, given a meager sub $48 price target, which barely compensates investors for the week-to-week risk in owning a volatile name like CGC stock, growing your dollars from a CGC stock purchase today continues to look like tough business on the price chart.
CGC Stock Daily Chart
Click to Enlarge
Canopy’s impressive credentials on paper continues to be at odds with a volatile price chart and one with a knack for temperamental behavior. A recent warning in mid-May to simply watch CGC from the sidelines was a good call as shares went on to shed roughly 15% at their recent lows. And I don’t see that pain as being over just yet either.
This week’s rally has reclaimed some of that lost value. The bad news is CGC stock is now stationed beneath the 200-day simple moving average after breaking the key long-term and closely-watched trend line. Moreover, the move higher this week has formed a bearish flag whose low undercut a similar failed pattern from April, which incidentally found support off the same moving average.
The technical interpretation is this time bulls won’t be so lucky with the current bearish pattern given the extra layer of resistance. If I’m correct, Canopy Growth shares will also be in position for a much larger correction towards the December low.
For traders agreeable with this bearish outlook, I’d recommend shorting shares below $41. The modified entry is about 1% beneath Thursday’s doji closing print and should help trigger some bearish momentum out of the flag. The short is also contingent on Canopy Growth remaining below $43.50. This line in the sand allows for a necessary couple percent of wiggle room above the 200 SMA. Given Canopy Growth stock’s history of erratic and volatile price behavior, that’s sensible enough. Better yet, it also keeps this bearish play from getting smoked off and on the price chart.
Disclosure: Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler’s management do not currently own positions in any securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional options-based strategies and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.
