The End of the Walt Disney Co Acquisition Saga Is Finally Here

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Walt Disney stock - The End of the Walt Disney Co Acquisition Saga Is Finally Here

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It’s official… though it’s not necessarily etched in stone. The gathering of Twenty-First Century Fox Inc (NASDAQ:FOXA, NASDAQ:FOX) to accept or reject an acquisition offer from Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) will take place on July 10.

That is, it will take place on July 10 unless Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) comes up with a better offer in the meantime. The buzz is the cable giant is preparing a bigger bid, after being rebuffed by Fox several months ago. Owners of Walt Disney stock are clearly hoping that doesn’t happen, while FOX shareholders are hoping for some sort of bidding war.

Of course, Comcast (which also owns NBCUniversal) may not actually bother trying again, depending on whether or not the intended merger of AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) and Time Warner Inc (NYSE:TWX) is allowed to proceed. The judge of that trial expects to post a decision by June 12.

It’s a lot to process.

The $64,000 question: If Comcast comes through with a new offer, is this a bidding war Disney shareholders really want the company to engage in?

Several Eyes on the Prize(s)

For better or worse, the end to a whirlwind saga appears to be in sight.

Some will recall the matter first started in late 2016, when Fox CEO Rupert Murdoch first offered to acquire Britain’s cable television giant Sky — the second such offer — for $23 billion. The deal bumped into legal and logistical headwinds though, giving Disney time to prepare an offer to acquire most of 21st Century Fox, including Fox’s impending deal to buy Sky. That offer materialized in November of last year, valuing the bulk of Fox at $52 billion worth of Walt Disney stock.

Comcast, however, was — and still is (reportedly) — interested in the same pieces of 21st Century Fox that Disney wants. Indeed, Comcast’s first offer was higher than Disney’s most recent offer from Comcast, but the Comcast offer didn’t include any compensation should regulators block the deal from happening.

And that is the real trick, in this particular case.

Oh yeah, in February, Comcast also made an overture directly to Sky, bypassing Murdoch’s rival offer and potentially squashing a key part of the reason Disney was interested in 21st Century Fox in the first place — access to Europe’s television, media and internet market. Of course, 21st Century Fox is no slouch across the pond. It’s a movie studio as well as several cable channels, including a handful of very popular sports channels.

The next move is Comcast’s, if it wants to make it. If it does nothing, Disney will probably buy Fox and will probably, by default, nab Sky as a result.

Worth $52 Billion?

Still, current and would-be owners of Walt Disney stock have to be wondering if the current offer of $52 billion (presuming Comcast doesn’t submit a better offer in the meantime) is worth it.

Maybe.

Over the course of the past four reported quarters, 21st Century Fox has turned $29.2 billion worth of revenue into net income of $4.0 billion. It’s not clear how much of that is attributable to Fox news and a couple of other Fox properties Disney wouldn’t be able to buy, but even carving those out, the deal could end up paying for itself.

Meanwhile, Sky Group drove nearly £13 billion in revenue last year, posting an operating profit of about £1.5 billion. In U.S. dollars, that’s roughly $17 billion and $2 billion, respectively.

Of course, neither Disney CEO Bob Iger nor Walt Disney stock holders are viewing the deal in a mere summation light. This is a hunt for synergy and/or a means of distributing a bigger library of content and/or as a means of rekindling its presence in professional sports now that ESPN is fighting a losing battle. It’s also about aggregating a content library (live and archived) that can make it competitive with Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), which somehow dominates the streaming video market without even a shred of the live programming many consumers still say they want.

So, then, the answer to the $64,000 question is: it depends. If Iger simply wants to bring a bunch of different-but-similar properties under one umbrella, $52 billion is a lot to pay for a collection of companies that aren’t doing overwhelmingly well on their own. If investors trust that Iger can actually work a little magic with a couple of new tools at his disposal, though, Fox shareholders may be more than okay with accepting a buyout payment in nothing but Walt Disney stock.

Bottom Line for Walt Disney Stock

As for existing shareholders, enthusiasm for the deal — and its price — wasn’t quite unanimous. Owners are broadly optimistic, though, that Bob Iger will indeed be able to make a whole that’s greater than the sum of its parts.

Yes, that includes a streaming video service that will compete with Netflix at a time when Walt Disney has already launched a sports-streaming platform and has another one planned that will feature more fictional content Disney is already so famous for. If Fox becomes part of the Walt Disney family, it would pair the Star Wars franchise with all of Marvel’s characters including the X-Men. Sky, of course, sets the stage for bringing more Fox-owned sports into Europe, as well as more Disney content.

So, yes, there’s a lot of upside to a relatively rich deal, if Iger knows what to do with the pieces. He probably does, which means Walt Disney stock holders better hope Comcast doesn’t get any ideas about upping the ante between now and July 10.

The good news is most Fox (and Sky) shareholders understand that Disney could do more with Fox and Sky than Comcast could.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/06/end-walt-disney-dis-acquisition-here/.

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