After analyzing this latest round of employment data, it’s clear to see that the labor market is substantially weakening. February job openings crashed. Layoffs are continuing to pile up. Jobless claims in the most economically sensitive states are on the rise – and usually, jobless claim spikes in these states precede nationwide claim spikes. At this point, the labor market is obviously deteriorating. However, it’s not yet dying. And that offers a “sweet spot” – a narrow window for the Fed to guide the economy to a soft landing.
Adding to our conviction is the fact that financial stress is also high right now. Treasury yields are plunging, indicating that bond investors are preparing for the financial markets to get tight. Credit and yield spreads are widening, and bank lending volume is collapsing. Plus, on Tuesday, JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said that the banking crisis is not over yet – and that’s from someone who endured the 2008 financial crisis, so we’re inclined to heed this warning.
Given these macro developments, the Fed has ample reason to smash the pause button on its rate-hike campaign. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia just paused, as did the Bank of Canada. Whenever those central banks pause, the U.S. Federal Reserve does, too. And historically speaking, after a Fed pause, stocks take off like a rocket.
So, what does Luke like right now ahead of that incoming mega rally? Hydrogen, EVs, and Big Tech.
Top Industries to Invest In: Hydrogen Stocks
Now, the hydrogen market has struggled lately, putting a hurting on one of our favorite companies – Plug Power (PLUG). And that’s because this market is developing much more slowly than most anticipated. Despite this, the space is still growing quickly, and electrolyzer shipments are expected to double or triple here in 2023.
Nothing about the bull case has changed. The world is still moving to replace natural gas with hydrogen power. And legislation continues to develop, helping to accelerate this shift.
Further, Big Oil is moving into the hydrogen space. There’s tons of demand for this fuel in Europe. And by summer, production tax credits for green hydrogen will come into focus – the first of its kind here in the U.S.
The long-term demand for hydrogen power is extremely robust, so hydrogen is a great play if you can afford to hold on for the long haul.
Top Industries to Invest In: EV Stocks
Like hydrogen, electric vehicle (EV) stocks continue to struggle. While Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), Nio (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), and others released positive updates, their stocks dropped in response. We think this weird price action is a result of reemerging recession fears.
After all, the auto market is not recession-resilient. Who knows how EVs will sell if the economy slows and interest rates remain high – especially because electric vehicles are expensive. But for us, this short-term risk doesn’t matter; we’re long EVs.
Rivian, Fisker (FSR), and Lucid (LCID) will sell every car they make. They’ve all got reservation backlogs, so demand is a non-issue. And each has a unique value proposition that could help them to become leaders in this industry.
If you’re in EVs for the long term, this seems like a fantastic buying opportunity.
Top Industries to Invest In: Big Tech Stocks
And Big Tech as a safety-net trade has definitely continued. The Nasdaq is showing alpha every single day. And now, the Nasdaq-100 has officially entered a new bull market after rallying 20% off its December lows.
Names like Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) are leading these rallies. And these stocks are fairly recession-resilient – we’ll still all use Google, scroll on Facebook and Instagram, and watch Netflix during a recession. Plus, they’ll all benefit from lower Treasury yields.
We think this dynamic will work for the foreseeable future.
Summing Up
While market conditions may prove volatile until the Fed comes to its senses, the getting is good for long-term investors. Which is why Luke continues to preach a “buy the dip” mentality. When stocks drop, buy a little. When they boom, sell a little. We can’t time the markets, but we can use data to make reasonable predictions.
And based on recent economic data and price action, we expect stocks to grind higher into May/June (when the Fed is expected to pause). Before the Fed pause, large-cap growth and tech stocks will lead the rally. After the Fed pause, small-cap growth and tech stocks will lead the rally.
Stick to your convictions and buy the dip for the long haul!
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On the date of publication, Seth Kuczinski did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
