Yelp Inc Stock Won’t Survive Big Clash With Amazon & Facebook

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YELP stock - Yelp Inc Stock Won’t Survive Big Clash With Amazon & Facebook

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I love (most) hyper-growth tech stocks. Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG,NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Shopify Inc (US) (NYSE:SHOP) are all names which I’m bullish on for the long-term.

But one name I really don’t like in this space is Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP).

Yelp has benefited from multiple secular growth tailwinds over the past several years, yet YELP stock has gone nowhere.

Digital food ordering has been a huge growth tailwind. The at-home economy is here, and that means more and more people continue to order food online. Digital advertising has also been a huge growth tailwind. Ad dollars continue to shift en masse from traditional mediums to digital channels.

Yelp finds itself at the overlap of digital food ordering and digital advertising. Naturally, YELP stock should’ve been a big winner over the past several years.

But it hasn’t been.

YELP stock is down 20% over the past 3 years, versus a near-35% gain for the S&P 500. Digital food ordering peer GrubHub Inc (NYSE:GRUB) has risen 125% in that time frame. Digital advertising peers Facebook and Google have risen 130% and 105%, respectively, over the past 3 years.

How is this possible? YELP stock has been the classic victim of too much hype creating an inflated valuation.

But here’s the worst news for YELP stock: things will only get worse from here.

Competition is coming in a big way, on both the digital food discovery and digital advertising fronts — and its tough to see YELP even posting positive growth 3-4 years from now.

But YELP stock is trading at 250 times this year’s earnings. That is the sort of multiple that AMZN stock has. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to connect the dots here — YELP stock is terribly overvalued.

When It Comes to Yelp, Beware of Competition

Even without competition, the YELP growth story doesn’t look that good. Namely, growth is slowing at an alarming rate across all important business segments.

Revenues rose 30% last year. That is healthy, even though GRUB reported 38% revenue growth last year and FB reported 54% revenue growth last year.

But YELP’s growth rate has come down sharply this year. Revenue growth was just 24% in the first quarter. That fell to 20% in Q2 and 19% in Q3. The step-down has happened in both advertising revenue growth (25% to 19% to 16%) and transaction revenue growth (24% to 19% to 18%).

This isn’t a problem with the digital food ordering industry. GRUB reported 32% revenue growth last quarter. Nor is it a problem with the digital advertising space. FB reported 47% revenue growth last quarter.

This is a YELP problem.

Worse yet, the slowdown for YELP is expected to continue. Revenues are expected to grow just 10% this quarter. Next year, full-year revenue growth is expected to be just 13%.

Meanwhile, margin growth is also tapping out. Adjusted EBITDA margins rose 400 basis points last year. They rose 700 basis points in the first quarter of this year and 500 basis points in the second quarter. But they rose just 100 basis points in the third quarter.

Overall, even if you ignore competitive concerns, YELP stock doesn’t look that good. Slowing revenue growth in the low double-digit range, plus tapped-out margins, doesn’t warrant a 250 multiple.

But the big reason to avoid YELP stock is competition.

In case you haven’t heard, Amazon is making a huge push into the digital advertising world. Big advertising companies are expected to up their ad spend on Amazon by 40-100% in 2018. Given Facebook and Google’s continued robust ad rev growth, I don’t think these extra ad dollars going towards Amazon will come out of FB or GOOG. I think they will come out of smaller players.

YELP is a smaller player.

Also, in case you haven’t heard, Facebook is trying to take over this space. I highly suggest investors go and check out Facebook Local, Facebook’s new restaurant and event discovery app. It looks and acts just like Yelp, but it leverages your social graph to provide recommendations, as opposed to crowd-sourcing Yelp opinions.

Long-term, given Facebook’s plethora of data, I don’t see any reason why Facebook Local won’t take huge market share from Yelp.

Bottom Line on YELP Stock

Even without competitive concerns, YELP stock does not deserve an Amazon-esque multiple for low double-digit — and slowing — revenue growth.

Considering competitive concerns, its tough to see YELP even posting positive growth in 3-4 years. That makes the current 250 multiple seem absurd.

Consequently, all things considered, YELP stock is a must-avoid at these levels.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, SHOP, and GRUB.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/12/yelp-stock-survive-amazon-facebook/.

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